Translate

Thursday, April 18, 2019

The last 30 Years of US Motor Vehicle Collision Fatalities: Deaths, Fatal/VMT( per 100M), VMT(per 100M)


Click to enlarge this complicated and noisy chart . Deaths (Red) are measured nominally. Fatality rate (Blue) is Fatalities/100M VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled). Vehicle Miles Traveled (Purple) is measured as 100M VMT.  To equate scales, fatalities are measured as numbered per the horizontal axis. VMT is effectively measured in trillions as 'y * 100M VMT',  while fatality/VMT is effectively measured in deaths per trillion  as 'y  / 100M VMT'.  These deaths include pedestrian and bicyclist deaths linked to moteor vehicle trauma. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

All three of these per year measurements charted above (Deaths, VMT, Deaths/VMT)  could be said to vary each year according to factors like:

  • national economic health
  • vehicle safety improvements
  • increasing population
  • price of fuel

 and perhaps many other factors. For example, the plunging Deaths/VMT could well represent some of the new vehicle technology, highway infrastructure improvements, data based safety analysis by planning agencies and law enforcement initiatives designed  to limit and control collision damage through mitigating behavioral crash factors like speeding, driving under the influence, texting etc.  The essential pattern for this thirty year period shows that there is a very strong positive correlation coefficient [R base] between miles driven and population and a moderately strong negative correlation coefficient between miles driven and deaths:
  • VMT.30[,cor(as.numeric(Population),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
  • 0.9618705
  • VMT.30[,cor(as.numeric(Deaths),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
  • -0.6221964
In other words, motor vehicle trauma based fatalities per miles driven per year keep decreasing for this thirty year period on the whole. However, any particular subset of this thirty year period can show changing relationships.  So, for example, the last six recorded years show that Deaths vs VMT correlates at .91! Functionally, this assures that the more you drive, the greater chance you have of death!

   Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT
1: 2012  313914000  33782          2.97                11374.41
2: 2013  316129000  32893          2.99                11001.00
3: 2014  318860000  32744          3.03                10806.60
4: 2015  321370000  35485          3.10                11446.77
5: 2016  323121000  37806          3.17                11926.18
6: 2017  325719000  37133          3.21                11567.91

VMT.6[,cor(as.numeric(Population),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
[1] 0.9814052
VMT.6[,cor(as.numeric(Deaths),as.numeric(VMT.Trillions))]
[1] 0.9146148

Full 30 Year Table sourced from:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

    Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT
 1: 1987  242288918  46390          1.92                24161.46
 2: 1988  244498982  47087          2.03                23195.57
 3: 1989  246819230  45582          2.10                21705.71
 4: 1990  249464396  44599          2.14                20840.65
 5: 1991  252153092  41508          2.17                19128.11
 6: 1992  255029699  39250          2.25                17444.44
 7: 1993  257782608  40150          2.30                17456.52
 8: 1994  260327021  40716          2.36                17252.54
 9: 1995  262803276  41817          2.42                17279.75
10: 1996  265228572  42065          2.49                16893.57
11: 1997  267783607  42013          2.56                16411.33
12: 1998  270248003  41501          2.63                15779.85
13: 1999  272690813  41717          2.69                15508.18
14: 2000  282216952  41945          2.75                15252.73
15: 2001  285226284  42196          2.80                15070.00
16: 2002  288125973  43005          2.86                15036.71
17: 2003  290796023  42884          2.89                14838.75
18: 2004  293638158  42836          2.96                14471.62
19: 2005  296507061  43510          2.99                14551.84
20: 2006  299398484  42708          3.01                14188.70
21: 2007  301139947  41259          3.03                13616.83
22: 2008  303824640  37423          2.98                12558.05
23: 2009  306700000  33883          2.96                11446.96
24: 2010  309326000  32999          2.97                11110.77
25: 2011  311588000  32479          2.95                11009.83
26: 2012  313914000  33782          2.97                11374.41
27: 2013  316129000  32893          2.99                11001.00
28: 2014  318860000  32744          3.03                10806.60
29: 2015  321370000  35485          3.10                11446.77
30: 2016  323121000  37806          3.17                11926.18
31: 2017  325719000  37133          3.21                11567.91
    Year Population Deaths VMT.Trillions Deaths.per.Trillion.VMT

No comments: