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Friday, May 17, 2019

2018 Net Migration

Below are some charts I created with the help of Kyle Walker's excellent tidycensus library and also a few other important libraries like tidyverse and sf. For more information, please see:

# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/ 
# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/articles/basic-usage.html
# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/articles/other-datasets.html
https://api.census.gov/data/2018/pep/components/variables.html
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/handbooks.html
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/kingcountywashington
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/whatcomcountywashington/PST045218

For me, the effect of this map is to show vast swaths of the midwest and northeast draining into states like Florida, Georgia,Texas, Washington, Oregon and to a lesser degree Colorado, North Dakota, Nevada and Arizona. Washington and Georgia Counties are shown as separate maps. If I had to guess, I would say much of the country is fed up with polar freezes, drought, fire and hurricanes. Apparently, they have decided to trade all of that for continual drizzle and rain in Portland and Seattle. Or maybe there are only three choices now for really smart youth seeking high incomes: San Francisco, Portland, or Seattle. Some example data and 2015:2018 growth Census derived tables for King and Whatcom Counties are far below.   Click to enlarge the maps.

5/23/2019: Added Appendix 1 : Top and Bottom 50 US Counties for "net migratioon" in 2018.

US Maps

The two US maps for 2018 below are (1) rate of net migration and  (2) net migration. These charts paint a similar picture except that the rate of net migration has five categories and the net migration has seven. If the "US is full", obviously certain areas are more "filled" than others. Reputedly, about 14%  or  40M of the US population moves each year. Typically there are urban and/or job seeking biases to migratory flows in the US. More information from the US Census here. Click to enlarge the maps.



State Maps


WA State 2018

Georgia State 2018

WA State Net Migration from Google Earth Shapefile Snapshot


WA State Net Migration Totals for Counties with over 2K in Net Migration for 2018. See table below.

2018 WA Population Change Data for Net Migration and Net Migration Rate

Table is ranked descending by Net Migration.
RNETMIG == Net Migration per 100K residents.

                 NAME    NETMIG RNETMIG
 1:         King County  28385  13.4772265
 2:    Snohomish County   8061  10.5547358
 3:       Pierce County   7636   9.1414835
 4:        Clark County   6410  14.1616304
 5:       Kitsap County   4948  19.3004183
 6:      Spokane County   4327   8.9062701
 7:      Whatcom County   2898  13.7949090
 8:       Benton County   2472  13.1189997
 9:     Thurston County   2090   7.8425634
10:       Skagit County   1392  11.5233696
11:       Island County   1151  14.5027059
12:      Cowlitz County   1148  11.2082558
13:      Clallam County   1057  14.5093652
14:      Whitman County   1027  21.6110433
15:       Chelan County    678   9.0828103
16:        Lewis County    584   7.7723138
17:      Douglas County    534  13.2911865
18:        Mason County    474   7.7929765
19:      Pacific County    425  20.5140582
20:     Kittitas County    377   8.7992624
21:  Walla Walla County    368   6.1583774
22:    Jefferson County    366  12.1051761
23: Grays Harbor County    279   3.9348424
24:     San Juan County    248  15.3999006
25: Pend Oreille County    184  14.1516690
26:      Stevens County    118   2.7122072
27:    Klickitat County    111   5.3032656
28:      Lincoln County     63   6.1415481
29:     Okanogan County     49   1.1863832
30:     Garfield County     18   8.1392720
31:     Columbia County     17   4.2794210
32:    Wahkiakum County     11   2.7261462
33:     Skamania County     -3  -0.2636783
34:        Ferry County    -60  -7.9422861
35:       Asotin County    -70  -3.1606276
36:        Grant County   -136  -1.4573667
37:        Adams County   -199 -10.3527208
38:     Franklin County   -264  -2.9911286
39:       Yakima County  -1130  -4.5646330
                   NAME NETMIG     RNETMIG


Some Example Population Change Data for Whatcom and King Counties

King County (2.2M) has experienced an estimated 15.6% population change from April 2010 to July 2018. Whatcom County (225K) has experienced an estimated 12.2% population change from April 2010 to July 2018. The categories in the tables below are abbreviated for space:
  •  YEAR 
  • DOMESTICMIG
  • INTERNATIONALMIG
  • NATURALINC
  • NETMIG
  • RDOMESTICMIG
  • RINTERNATIONALMIG
  • RNETMIG

Select King County migration and natural increase data for 2015 : 2018

 YEAR   DOMESTICMIG             INTMIG            NATINC   NETMIG        RDOMMIG                    RINTMIG     RNETMIG
2015        5965            16269      12714  22234     2.840873          7.748226 10.589099
2016        8511            15500      12325  24011     3.991815          7.269784 11.261598
2017        2802            17327      12517  20129     1.289874          7.976318  9.266192
2018        7044            21341      12414  28385     3.344498         10.132728 13.477227

King County 2018: Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) +  Net Migration (Domestic + International):
  • Let 'resident' refer to both natural and migratory population increase
  • Let 'immigrant' refer to only domestic or international migration increase
(12414 + 28385) / 12
[1] 3399.917 # new residents each month
(28385) / 12
[1] 2365.417 # new immigrants each month
(12414 + 28385) / 365
[1] 111.7781 # new residents each day
(28385) / 365
[1] 77.76712  # new immigrants each day


Select Whatcom County migration and natural increase data for 2015 : 2018

 YEAR DOMESTICMIG                 INTMIG    NATINC   NETMIG       RDOMMIG                    RINTMIG     RNETMIG
2015        2374              471        805   2845     11.28394          2.238726 13.52267
2016        3305              397        791   3702     15.40922          1.850971 17.26019
2017        3950              421        737   4371     18.04980          1.923789 19.97359
2018        2332              566        798   2898     11.10067          2.694244 13.79491

Whatcom County 2018: Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) +  Net Migration (Domestic + International):
  • Let 'resident' refer to both natural and migratory population increase.
  • Let 'immigrant' refer to only domestic or international migration increase.
(798 + 2898) / 12 
[1] 308 # new residents each month
(2898) / 12
[1] 241.5         # new immigrants each month
(798 + 2898) / 365
[1] 10.12603 # new residents each day
(2898) / 365
[1] 7.939726 # new immigrants each day


Appendix 1


Top and Bottom Counties for "Net Migration" in 2018 below. A list of the most populous counties in the US can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_populous_counties_in_the_United_States

   GEOID                    NAME variable  value         groups geometry
  1: 17031             Cook County   NETMIG -38838 -250 and below     
  2: 06037      Los Angeles County   NETMIG -19179 -250 and below     
  3: 36047            Kings County   NETMIG -18357 -250 and below     
  4: 26163            Wayne County   NETMIG -12092 -250 and below     
  5: 48141          El Paso County   NETMIG  -9565 -250 and below     
  6: 36081           Queens County   NETMIG  -8447 -250 and below     
  7: 36103          Suffolk County   NETMIG  -7547 -250 and below     
  8: 51059          Fairfax County   NETMIG  -6546 -250 and below     
  9: 47157           Shelby County   NETMIG  -6285 -250 and below     
 10: 39035         Cuyahoga County   NETMIG  -5790 -250 and below     
 11: 55079        Milwaukee County   NETMIG  -5766 -250 and below     
 12: 02020  Anchorage Municipality   NETMIG  -5355 -250 and below     
 13: 17043           DuPage County   NETMIG  -4673 -250 and below     
 14: 37051       Cumberland County   NETMIG  -4198 -250 and below     
 15: 18089             Lake County   NETMIG  -4178 -250 and below     
 16: 48061          Cameron County   NETMIG  -4045 -250 and below     
 17: 36055           Monroe County   NETMIG  -3747 -250 and below     
 18: 09009        New Haven County   NETMIG  -3720 -250 and below     
 19: 13179          Liberty County   NETMIG  -3697 -250 and below     
 20: 24510          Baltimore city   NETMIG  -3609 -250 and below     
 21: 34031          Passaic County   NETMIG  -3447 -250 and below     
 22: 13215         Muscogee County   NETMIG  -3154 -250 and below     
 23: 17097             Lake County   NETMIG  -3080 -250 and below     
 24: 29510          St. Louis city   NETMIG  -3070 -250 and below     
 25: 42003        Allegheny County   NETMIG  -3044 -250 and below     
 26: 36059           Nassau County   NETMIG  -2960 -250 and below     
 27: 36005            Bronx County   NETMIG  -2958 -250 and below     
 28: 34013            Essex County   NETMIG  -2956 -250 and below     
 29: 42101     Philadelphia County   NETMIG  -2892 -250 and below     
 30: 36045        Jefferson County   NETMIG  -2868 -250 and below     
 31: 21093           Hardin County   NETMIG  -2847 -250 and below     
 32: 17197             Will County   NETMIG  -2841 -250 and below     
 33: 09003         Hartford County   NETMIG  -2741 -250 and below     
 34: 18097           Marion County   NETMIG  -2642 -250 and below     
 35: 34001         Atlantic County   NETMIG  -2603 -250 and below     
 36: 09001        Fairfield County   NETMIG  -2515 -250 and below     
 37: 26049          Genesee County   NETMIG  -2512 -250 and below     
 38: 06107           Tulare County   NETMIG  -2405 -250 and below     
 39: 34017           Hudson County   NETMIG  -2380 -250 and below     
 40: 34007           Camden County   NETMIG  -2317 -250 and below     
 41: 34023        Middlesex County   NETMIG  -2315 -250 and below     
 42: 28049            Hinds County   NETMIG  -2248 -250 and below     
 43: 36061         New York County   NETMIG  -2230 -250 and below     
 44: 17201        Winnebago County   NETMIG  -2168 -250 and below     
 45: 39095            Lucas County   NETMIG  -2152 -250 and below     
 46: 22017            Caddo Parish   NETMIG  -2145 -250 and below     
 47: 22033 East Baton Rouge Parish   NETMIG  -2091 -250 and below     
 48: 17163        St. Clair County   NETMIG  -2088 -250 and below     
 49: 48485          Wichita County   NETMIG  -2066 -250 and below     
 50: 26145          Saginaw County   NETMIG  -2028 -250 and below     


     GEOID                 NAME variable value      groups geometry
  1: 48201        Harris County   NETMIG 56159 +250 and up     
  2: 04013      Maricopa County   NETMIG 52146 +250 and up     
  3: 32003         Clark County   NETMIG 31790 +250 and up     
  4: 53033          King County   NETMIG 28385 +250 and up     
  5: 12099    Palm Beach County   NETMIG 25467 +250 and up     
  6: 12095        Orange County   NETMIG 24755 +250 and up     
  7: 12057  Hillsborough County   NETMIG 24234 +250 and up     
  8: 48157     Fort Bend County   NETMIG 23779 +250 and up     
  9: 48439       Tarrant County   NETMIG 23081 +250 and up     
 10: 48085        Collin County   NETMIG 22799 +250 and up     
 11: 48029         Bexar County   NETMIG 22111 +250 and up     
 12: 12071           Lee County   NETMIG 21871 +250 and up     
 13: 48121        Denton County   NETMIG 19295 +250 and up     
 14: 37183          Wake County   NETMIG 17064 +250 and up     
 15: 12011       Broward County   NETMIG 16752 +250 and up     
 16: 06001       Alameda County   NETMIG 16200 +250 and up     
 17: 48453        Travis County   NETMIG 16183 +250 and up     
 18: 06065     Riverside County   NETMIG 15370 +250 and up     
 19: 48339    Montgomery County   NETMIG 14951 +250 and up     
 20: 48491    Williamson County   NETMIG 14915 +250 and up     
 21: 12086    Miami-Dade County   NETMIG 14677 +250 and up     
 22: 48113        Dallas County   NETMIG 14310 +250 and up     
 23: 12103      Pinellas County   NETMIG 14120 +250 and up     
 24: 37119   Mecklenburg County   NETMIG 14073 +250 and up     
 25: 08031        Denver County   NETMIG 13422 +250 and up     
 26: 12105          Polk County   NETMIG 13204 +250 and up     
 27: 12101         Pasco County   NETMIG 12282 +250 and up     
 28: 12009       Brevard County   NETMIG 12077 +250 and up     
 29: 12127       Volusia County   NETMIG 11990 +250 and up     
 30: 12081       Manatee County   NETMIG 11706 +250 and up     
 31: 45051         Horry County   NETMIG 11165 +250 and up     
 32: 06085   Santa Clara County   NETMIG 10880 +250 and up     
 33: 12115      Sarasota County   NETMIG 10763 +250 and up     
 34: 06013  Contra Costa County   NETMIG 10383 +250 and up     
 35: 12069          Lake County   NETMIG 10376 +250 and up     
 36: 12097       Osceola County   NETMIG 10262 +250 and up     
 37: 06067    Sacramento County   NETMIG 10244 +250 and up     
 38: 13135      Gwinnett County   NETMIG  9857 +250 and up     
 39: 39049      Franklin County   NETMIG  9751 +250 and up     
 40: 06073     San Diego County   NETMIG  9705 +250 and up     
 41: 06075 San Francisco County   NETMIG  9224 +250 and up     
 42: 12031         Duval County   NETMIG  8802 +250 and up     
 43: 12021       Collier County   NETMIG  8604 +250 and up     
 44: 04021         Pinal County   NETMIG  8341 +250 and up     
 45: 12109     St. Johns County   NETMIG  8147 +250 and up     
 46: 53061     Snohomish County   NETMIG  8061 +250 and up     
 47: 48209          Hays County   NETMIG  7990 +250 and up     
 48: 08069       Larimer County   NETMIG  7926 +250 and up     
 49: 11001 District of Columbia   NETMIG  7907 +250 and up     
 50: 41051     Multnomah County   NETMIG  7764 +250 and up     




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