Summary:
Exactly 975,219 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in tonight's (11/04/2019) statewide matchback. Another 11,409 have been rejected or 'challenged'. The WA SoS total for this is 984,433 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 21.9%. This statewide total is ~66% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017 ('off year') general elections. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here.
The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 459,317 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 29% of that (459,317) total with 131,903 ballots accepted. That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election. GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are contributing 252,007 votes. But keep in mind this amazing statistic: Those born in the 1930s (82,161 voted) are currently outvoting those born in the 1980s(79,844 voted). Say what you will about the older vote: Pre-wars and boomers vote like their lives depend upon it. Please see 'Age by Status' below. To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.
Women are currently out voting men in all but 10 counties. I am reminded that I noticed a strong male registration trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 476533 460490 # Ready for tabulation
2: Received 18122 16203 # In the chute
3: Rejected 5292 5984 # Challenged or Rejected
For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 33121 30600
2: Received 62 57
3: Rejected 312 340
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:
# [All State: 11.04.2019]
sMB110419[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Received 34409
2: Accepted 940810
3: Rejected 11409
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
# Percentage Accepted and Received as of 11.04.2019
(940810+34409)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
[1] 21.77135
# See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB110419[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 11409
#[Whatcom County]
sMB110419[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 975220
2: Signature Does Not Match 4713
3: Unsigned 3045
4: Undeliverable 1248
5: Review 836
6: HOLD 632
7: Ballot Style Change 229
8: Other than Voter 169
9: Other Than Voter 95
10: Marked Moved 79
11: ID Required 68
12: No Signature on File 60
13: Deceased 56
14: Canvassing Board 55
15: Advanced Special Ballot 26
16: Hold 24
17: Empty Envelope 21
18: Witness Signature Missing 18
19: Power of Attorney 12
20: Voter Name Change 10
21: Invalid 6
22: Id Required 5
23: Power Of Attorney 1
ChallengeReason N
sMB110419[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 42516
2: Signature Does Not Match 172
3: Unsigned 61
4: Other than Voter 38
5: Ballot Style Change 30
6: HOLD 19
7: Review 10
8: ID Required 4
9: Empty Envelope 1
10: Deceased 1
sMB110419[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 42397
2: Rejected 336
3: Received 119
# All State
VR[,Age:=as.numeric(year(ymd_hms(Sys.time()))) - year(ymd(Birthdate))]
# Age by Status
sMB110419[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 4 343 15075 82161 214383 244934 152872 99135 79844 45827 6232
2: Received 0 4 313 2104 7111 9526 6336 4056 2908 1731 320
3: Rejected 1 7 177 584 1322 2010 1732 1628 1726 1866 356
sMB <- allotstatus="" ecade="paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10," font="" s="" smb110419="">
+ dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
cbind(setnames(VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Decade=Age%/%10)][order(-Decade)],
c("Age","Registered"))[],
setnames(as.data.table(t(sMB),keep.rownames=TRUE)[2:12,1:2],
c("Decade","Voted"))[])[,
.(Decade,Age=paste0(Age,"0s"),Registered,Voted)][,
.SD[,.(Turnout=round(as.numeric(Voted)/as.numeric(Registered),3) * 100)],.(Decade,Age,Registered,Voted)]
Decade Age Registered Voted Turnout
1: 1900s 110s 27 4 14.8
2: 1910s 100s 1711 343 20.0
3: 1920s 90s 44030 15075 34.2
4: 1930s 80s 184015 82161 44.6
5: 1940s 70s 492174 214383 43.6
6: 1950s 60s 765293 244934 32.0
7: 1960s 50s 756929 152872 20.2
8: 1970s 40s 706611 99135 14.0
9: 1980s 30s 784614 79844 10.2
10: 1990s 20s 672919 45827 6.8
11: 2000s 10s 71046 6232 8.8
sMB110419[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 476533 460490
2: Received 18122 16203
3: Rejected 5292 5984
sMB110419[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 29 1104 5925 16180 16919 9143 6180 4866 3050 479
2: Received 0 2 11 26 26 23 16 8 6 1
3: Rejected 1 10 39 98 120 94 89 83 104 20
sMB110419[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 33121 30600
2: Received 62 57
3: Rejected 312 340
sMB110419[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 1849
2: San Juan F 2033
3: Skagit M 8679
4: Skagit F 9194
5: Whatcom M 20469
6: Whatcom F 22268
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: 5806
4: U 14549
5: O 127
# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: F 123648
2: M 112703
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB110419[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
y=male majority in vote
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 728 793 47.9
2: Asotin 2092 2195 48.8
3: Benton 11462 11436 50.1 y
4: Chelan 6273 6478 49.2
5: Clallam 6451 6947 48.1
6: Clark 26370 27312 49.1
7: Columbia 513 528 49.3
8: Cowlitz 7583 7821 49.2
9: Douglas 2819 2890 49.4
10: Ferry 865 816 51.5 y
11: Franklin 3116 3144 49.8
12: Garfield 278 282 49.6
13: Grant 4967 4863 50.5 y
14: Grays Harbor 5752 6208 48.1
15: Island 7839 8279 48.6
16: Jefferson 3983 4315 48.0
17: King 143331 146319 49.5
18: Kitsap 20694 21063 49.6
19: Kittitas 3536 3478 50.4 y
20: Klickitat 1753 1760 49.9
21: Lewis 6505 6494 50.0 y
22: Lincoln 1331 1318 50.2 y
23: Mason 6144 6015 50.5 y
24: Okanogan 2971 2951 50.2 y
25: Pacific 2272 2301 49.7
26: Pend Oreille 1424 1333 51.7 y
27: Pierce 47772 49572 49.1
28: San Juan 1849 2033 47.6
29: Skagit 8679 9194 48.6
30: Skamania 949 905 51.2 y
31: Snohomish 37371 38306 49.4
32: Spokane 42368 46050 47.9
33: Stevens 4303 4297 50.0 y
34: Thurston 20972 22531 48.2
35: Wahkiakum 408 418 49.4
36: Walla Walla 3814 4063 48.4
37: Whatcom 20469 22268 47.9
38: Whitman 2406 2471 49.3
39: Yakima 10265 10500 49.4
County Male Female Pct.Male
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