Saturday, August 4, 2018

Age and the Primary Turnout

Analysis and data updated from August 10th matchback - RMF 6:52 AM 8/12/2018

There were any number of important reasons to vote in the August 7th Primary, and vote many did. This table is from August 9th  Whatcom County matchbacks merged with July's VRDB:

   AgeRange Active VotesGood PctGood_AgeRange
1:  17 - 54  80113     24115             30.1
2:  55 - 80  53542     33779             63.1
3: 81 - 106   6721      4483             66.7

The older generations elected Donald Trump in 2016. One has to admire the dogged persistence of a combined age group of 55 - 106 years in Whatcom County that now has over 60 percent turnout..  However, as this record breaking primary election continued, the weight of the Millennial/GenX generations became heavier. (Keep in mind, the college students aren't here now). Although Millennial/GenX generations (17 - 54) have the greatest voting potential, "Boomers plus" (55 - 80) comprise the largest volume of votes in this Primary. In the charts below, "Boomers plus" appears to creates a binomial or Cauchy  distribution curve, although that curve appeared to move left (52 - 78) as the election progressed.  The 66.7 return rate of 'pre-war' generations (81 - 106)  is impressive and magnifies their influence. Below, I give two charts. The first is the Friday evening (08/03/2018) before the election  and the second is the Thursday evening (08/09/2018) matchback.  Click to enlarge the charts:

Data from 08/03/2018 matchback.

Data from 08/10/2018 matchback.

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