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Monday, October 29, 2018

Precinct and County Participation Maps: 11/05/2018


WA Counties Turnout for 11/05/2018: 4:00PM Click to enlarge the chart.

I will update this post with fresh data daily through the remaining election period. - RMF 11/05/2018 7:00 PM.

Ballot Statistics as of 11.05.2018 4:00PM show 1.9M ballots returned. This is a fairly blistering state-wide 44.9% turnout rate. However, there is a wide range to county turnout currently stretching from 36.6% to 66.30%.  Among counties with voter populations over 50K, Clallam, Whatcom, Island and Spokane county stand out for their turnout.  If you have not yet received a ballot, you should call your local Elections office immediatelyYou should also vote early, check myvote.wa.gov  and check "Ballot Status" box after voting. The magic phrase you want to see is "Your ballot has been accepted for tabulation." That means you are good to go!  
The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.05.2018), we are 0 days from the election. Statewide 1,937,253  good ballots have been returned as of 11.05.2018 4:00 PM.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data from 11.05.2018 data currently showing about 1,881,846.

County Turnout
From Ballot Statistics from 11.05.2018 ranked by Turnout:
County Voters Returned Percentage
PIERCE 489972 179290 36.60%
THURSTON 181242 66712 36.80%
DOUGLAS 21746 8192 37.70%
WHITMAN 25009 9421 37.70%
YAKIMA 115969 44299 38.20%
ADAMS 7318 2813 38.40%
SNOHOMISH 457695 184491 40.30%
KITSAP 168647 68580 40.70%
SKAGIT 75442 31030 41.10%
FRANKLIN 34518 14728 42.70%
KITTITAS 25625 11166 43.60%
KLICKITAT 13998 6347 45.30%
BENTON 109808 50436 45.90%
KING 1289482 593328 46.00%
WALLA WALLA 34500 16000 46.40%
GRANT 40001 18612 46.50%
CLARK 281554 132262 47.00%
GRAYS HARBOR 42518 20383 47.90%
ASOTIN 14653 7142 48.70%
COWLITZ 63116 31254 49.50%
STEVENS 30000 15146 50.50%
SKAMANIA 7614 3885 51.00%
CLALLAM 51883 26652 51.40%
LEWIS 46579 23951 51.40%
PACIFIC 14187 7381 52.00%
OKANOGAN 23000 12005 52.20%
SPOKANE 304641 160508 52.70%
MASON 38612 20540 53.20%
ISLAND 55808 29957 53.70%
CHELAN 44005 23930 54.40%
WHATCOM 139750 76083 54.40%
GARFIELD 1648 944 57.30%
SAN JUAN 13327 7636 57.30%
FERRY 4650 2731 58.70%
PEND OREILLE 9000 5323 59.10%
LINCOLN 7076 4408 62.30%
WAHKIAKUM 3074 1916 62.30%
JEFFERSON 25220 15976 63.30%
COLUMBIA 2707 1795 66.30%


Table
The table below shows precincts by vote bins from inclusive ranges. (e.g Incl.x to <-><->Incl.y) from 11.01.2018 data. Columns include a count of those precinct bins and data for aggregated turnout, votes, active voters for those same precinct bins. For example, row 1 describes 207 precincts that have had 0 – 24 votes returned for an aggregate 34.9% turnout from 2,236 votes out of 6,409 active voters. Row 35 describes 2 precincts that have had  950 - 974 votes returned for an aggregate 62.5% turnout from 961 votes out of 1,538 active voters. Clearly, some precincts are under performing to date while other are responsible for aggressive turnouts. Their aggregate turnout levels reflect this:


     Incl.x Incl.y Prcnts Turnout  Voted Active
 1:      0     24    207    34.9   2236   6409
 2:     25     49    243    37.2   8896  23941
 3:     50     74    214    37.4  13251  35453
 4:     75     99    178    36.3  15463  42627
 5:    100    124    236    37.2  26688  71810
 6:    150    174    476    41.2  77277 187768
 7:    175    199    573    41.1 107197 260832
 8:    200    224    554    42.2 117409 278183
 9:    225    249    488    41.2 115657 280807
10:    250    274    437    42.1 114192 271196
11:    275    299    437    41.9 125354 298940
12:    300    324    341    41.4 106206 256509
13:    325    349    333    42.7 112176 262580
14:    350    374    268    42.5  97002 228183
15:    375    399    214    42.9  82714 192750
16:    400    424    218    44.7  89695 200449
17:    425    449    154    44.7  67372 150822
18:    450    474    120    44.7  55393 123909
19:    475    499    129    44.6  62744 140785
20:    500    524     93    47.3  47582 100677
21:    525    549     69    48.4  37080  76668
22:    550    574     70    48.4  39339  81336
23:    575    599     44    47.9  25849  53968
24:    600    624     48    49.4  29290  59282
25:    625    649     35    51.6  22282  43169
26:    650    674     24    51.3  15885  30979
27:    675    699     23    54.4  15783  29031
28:    700    724     19    52.9  13548  25627
29:    725    749     10    55.2   7335  13291
30:    750    774     15    54.4  11408  20961
31:    775    799      5    58.0   3951   6813
32:    800    824      5    52.6   4061   7715
33:    825    849      6    56.6   5020   8870
34:    850    874      3    65.6   2575   3924
35:    950    974      1    62.5    961   1538
    Incl.x Incl.y Prcnts Turnout  Voted Active

Maps

Terrain (light green) colored areas here generally have less than 45 votes returned per precinct after the end of the second full week (11.02.2018) of the WA state midterm election.  However, turnout buckets for Kitsap are incorrect on this map along with some other precincts due to some 2016/2017/2018 precinct merge issues.  See table (1) above for current county turnout levels. See table (2) above for current precinct turnout levels expressed as bins. Click to enlarge charts.











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