Ballot Status
The collective Ballot Status came in like this:
BallotStatus N
1: Sent 88500 # Sent but not returned
2: Accepted 58169 # Accepted and Tabulated
3: Canceled 5781 # Canceled usually due to duplication of ballot
4: Rejected 587 # Challenged. For now, 'ChallengedReason' is not tracked in the new election format in Whatcom County.
How The Vote Came In
UOCAVA ballots are sent overseas early and returned as soon as possible. ~30K of the ~58K Accepted Ballots are received in three days: August 5,6, and 7 which is Monday through Wednesday. Mailed ballots sent Tuesday morning go down to Seattle for a postmark and come back Wednesday. In reality, lots of Ballots mailed on the weekend may not arrive until Wednesday as well. Note that among the 328 rejected on August 16th are probably signature challenges that were not cured in during the certification period and late ballots:
BallotReceived Accepted Canceled Rejected
1: 2019-07-22 81 0 0
2: 2019-07-23 3358 1 8
3: 2019-07-24 2518 0 6
4: 2019-07-25 4537 0 4
5: 2019-07-26 2680 2 4
6: 2019-07-29 3629 1 13
7: 2019-07-30 2665 0 7
8: 2019-07-31 2044 1 6
9: 2019-08-01 3251 0 9
10: 2019-08-02 2592 0 7
11: 2019-08-05 7142 9 26 # Monday
12: 2019-08-06 13295 4 55 # Election Tuesday
13: 2019-08-07 9703 0 95 # Day After: Heavy Mail in Turnout
14: 2019-08-08 214 0 4
15: 2019-08-09 21 0 0
16: 2019-08-12 259 0 5
17: 2019-08-13 41 0 1
18: 2019-08-14 9 10 0
19: 2019-08-15 117 1 2
20: 2019-08-16 4 0 328
21: 2019-08-19 9 0 7
BallotReceived Accepted Canceled Rejected
Demographics
Females really dominate that Whatcom County vote. In a Primary, those born in the '40s and '50s make up 26K of 58K 'Accepted' ballots. Those born in either the '40s or '50s make up 21% up the male vote and 24% of the female vote for a combined 45% of the total vote in PRI 2019:
[Accepted Ballots]
Gender N
1: M 27015
2: F 31107
3: 44
4: O 2
5: U 1
Decade N
1: 191 20
2: 192 822
3: 193 4244
4: 194 11943
5: 195 14028
6: 196 8908
7: 197 7007
8: 198 5992
9: 199 4619
10: 200 586
Decade M F Pct.Vote.Male Pct.Vote.Female PctOFMalefromAllMaleVotes PctOFFemalefromAllFemaleVotes
1: 191 7 13 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
2: 192 296 526 0.51 0.90 1.10 1.69
3: 193 1978 2266 3.40 3.90 7.32 7.28
4: 194 5786 6155 9.95 10.59 21.42 19.79
5: 195 6370 7648 10.96 13.16 23.58 24.59
6: 196 4122 4784 7.09 8.23 15.26 15.38
7: 197 3289 3713 5.66 6.39 12.17 11.94
8: 198 2809 3175 4.83 5.46 10.40 10.21
9: 199 2074 2526 3.57 4.35 7.68 8.12
10: 200 284 301 0.49 0.52 1.05 0.97
Turnout
Precincts can have wildly different turnout rates in the Primary.
PrecinctID Accepted Active Turnout
1: 101 295 1133 26.0
2: 102 263 736 35.7
3: 103 428 899 47.6
4: 104 289 541 53.4
5: 105 205 513 40.0
---
174: 609 417 1002 41.6
175: 610 456 981 46.5
176: 611 308 712 43.3
177: 701 261 913 28.6
178: 801 220 902 24.4
Top 20 Precincts for Turnout:
PrecinctID Accepted Active Turnout
1: 251 454 743 61.1
2: 250 608 1054 57.7
3: 264 449 779 57.6
4: 138 472 836 56.5
5: 210 573 1046 54.8
6: 222 587 1074 54.7
7: 260 330 609 54.2
8: 261 335 618 54.2
9: 180 395 733 53.9
10: 104 289 541 53.4
11: 265 380 718 52.9
12: 215 469 894 52.5
13: 235 272 529 51.4
14: 243 430 847 50.8
15: 266 429 862 49.8
16: 503 463 933 49.6
17: 303 520 1050 49.5
18: 234 432 874 49.4
19: 605 602 1228 49.0
20: 256 463 949 48.8
Bottom 20 Precincts for Turnout:
PrecinctID Accepted Active Turnout
1: 245 7 703 1.0 #WWU Dorms
2: 252 11 283 3.9 #WWU Dorms
3: 273 15 93 16.1
4: 133 201 1123 17.9
5: 268 13 66 19.7
6: 253 295 1486 19.9 #WWU nearby precinct
7: 137 222 1076 20.6
8: 183 8 35 22.9
9: 230 253 1067 23.7
10: 204 203 854 23.8
11: 247 278 1166 23.8 #WWU nearby precinct
12: 226 221 911 24.3
13: 801 220 902 24.4
14: 142 266 1081 24.6
15: 269 44 176 25.0
16: 401 163 651 25.0
17: 148 282 1110 25.4
18: 101 295 1133 26.0 #Summer turnout for Pt. Roberts?
19: 229 346 1304 26.5
20: 231 359 1351 26.6
Turnout by "Precinct Decade":
Precinct Decade is 100 %/% 10 or Precincts group 100 - 109.
PrecinctDecade Accepted Active Turnout
1: 10 2566 7321 35.0
2: 11 2763 7285 37.9
3: 12 2987 7587 39.4
4: 13 3075 8844 34.8
5: 14 3391 9809 34.6
6: 15 2350 6343 37.0
7: 16 2893 7340 39.4
8: 17 2823 7472 37.8
9: 18 1262 3426 36.8
10: 20 3627 9714 37.3
11: 21 4039 9708 41.6
12: 22 3528 9799 36.0
13: 23 3264 8402 38.8
14: 24 3272 9131 35.8
15: 25 3400 8534 39.8
16: 26 2693 5681 47.4
17: 27 76 271 28.0
18: 30 1450 3959 36.6
19: 40 449 1477 30.4
20: 50 3556 8949 39.7
21: 60 3460 8466 40.9
22: 61 764 1693 45.1
23: 70 261 913 28.6
24: 80 220 902 24.4
PrecinctDecade Accepted Active Turnout
Previous Voting Histories from 2017 up until PRI 2019:
Ballot Status From matchback:
BallotStatus N
1: Canceled 5781
2: Sent 88500 # Sent not returned
3: Accepted 58169
4: Rejected 587
Merged with Previous Voting History 2017 - 2019:
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 56058
2: Sent 57814 # Sent not returned
3: Canceled 4235
4: Rejected 500
~30K ballots "Sent but not returned" had no pre-existing voting history for 2017 up until 2019:
88500 - 57814
[1] 30686
Edate N
1: 2017-02-14 1
2: 2017-04-25 3
3: 2017-08-01 48
4: 2017-11-07 153
5: 2018-02-13 95
6: 2018-04-24 24
7: 2018-08-07 435
8: 2018-11-06 47473 # Biggest block of voters 'Last Voted' in GE 2018
9: 2019-02-12 7826
Last Voted Election: "Sent" but not returned by Previous Voting History 2017 - 2019:
Edate N
1: 2017-02-14 29
2: 2017-04-25 19
3: 2017-08-01 326
4: 2017-11-07 1061
5: 2018-02-13 532
6: 2018-04-24 152
7: 2018-08-07 1067
8: 2018-11-06 50113 # Biggest block of non-voters 'Last Voted' GE 2018
9: 2019-02-12 4515
Precinct Decade Comparisons:
PrecinctDecade Accepted Active Cantwell Hutchison PRI2019_TO PCTCantwell_GE2018
1: 10 2566 7321 2654 2310 35.0 53.5
2: 11 2763 7285 1750 3471 37.9 33.5
3: 12 2987 7587 2217 3286 39.4 40.3
4: 13 3075 8844 3652 2339 34.8 61.0
5: 14 3391 9809 2358 4335 34.6 35.2
6: 15 2350 6343 2061 2629 37.0 43.9
7: 16 2893 7340 3375 2190 39.4 60.6
8: 17 2823 7472 3827 1752 37.8 68.6
9: 18 1262 3426 1522 926 36.8 62.2
10: 20 3627 9714 4709 1743 37.3 73.0
11: 21 4039 9708 5335 1638 41.6 76.5
12: 22 3528 9799 5778 1232 36.0 82.4
13: 23 3264 8402 4308 1697 38.8 71.7
14: 24 3272 9131 5577 1335 35.8 80.7
15: 25 3400 8534 5515 993 39.8 84.7
16: 26 2693 5681 3251 978 47.4 76.9
17: 27 76 271 0 0 28.0 NaN
18: 30 1450 3959 1395 1215 36.6 53.4
19: 40 449 1477 401 567 30.4 41.4
20: 50 3556 8949 3000 2909 39.7 50.8
21: 60 3460 8466 1605 4508 40.9 26.3
22: 61 764 1693 283 957 45.1 22.8
23: 70 261 913 206 396 28.6 34.2
24: 80 220 902 192 351 24.4 35.4
PrecinctDecade Accepted Active Cantwell Hutchison PRI2019_TO PCTCantwell_GE2018
Precinct Decades: Frazey (PRI 2019) vs. Cantwell (GE 2018):
PrecinctDecade Frazey Cantwell Frazey/Cantwell
1: 10 1192 2654 44.9
2: 11 819 1750 46.8
3: 12 1019 2217 46.0
4: 13 1636 3652 44.8
5: 14 1018 2358 43.2
6: 15 990 2061 48.0
7: 16 1683 3375 49.9
8: 17 1769 3827 46.2
9: 18 763 1522 50.1
10: 20 2420 4709 51.4
11: 21 2843 5335 53.3
12: 22 2648 5778 45.8
13: 23 2153 4308 50.0
14: 24 2352 5577 42.2
15: 25 2664 5515 48.3
16: 26 1917 3251 59.0
17: 27 33 0 Inf # hidden results for Senate 2018
18: 30 679 1395 48.7
19: 40 161 401 40.1
20: 50 1527 3000 50.9
21: 60 919 1605 57.3
22: 61 178 283 62.9
23: 70 94 206 45.6
24: 80 69 192 35.9
PrecinctDecade Frazey Cantwell Frazey.Cantwell
No comments:
Post a Comment