The team at WA VRDB assures me they will have a May VRDB soon! Until then, we will look at some changes in Whatcom County's 4.30.2019 VRDB for status active voters. Approximately 3,489 new voters registered (year(Registrationdate) == 2019) in Whatcom County for the first four months of this year:
1: 251 #January,
2: 673 #February
3: 1003 #March
4: 562 #Aprial
In the first chart below, you can see the distribution of those new voters by age group per Precinct Decade (e.g. '10' = Precincts 101 through 109). For my age groups I used:
- Millennial=Age < 36 [born after 1983]
- GenX=between(Age,36,60,inclusive) [born between 1959 and 1983]
- Boomer=between(Age,61,86,inclusive) [born between 1934 and 1958
- PostWar=Age > 86 [born on or before 1933 but almost all after WWI end]
I have rearranged American generations for the last 100 years a little differently than others. PostWar refers to post WWI. (Only 36 voters out of 145K active voters in WM county's voter database are born before 1918. They are all between 101 and 107 years old now). In redefining these generations I have de-emphasized WWII and the 30's Depression as seminal generational events for our voter database. Enough wars and economic hardships have occurred since 1945 to minimize the effect that the that 'depression' and 'war babies' have on our electoral system.
I have also extended 'Generation X' some and redefined Boomers as those that would likely remember post WWII prosperity but would also have been born before JFK assumed office. I have shortened the previous Millennial start to 1983 from the oft invoked 1980. Many of the conditions that define a 'Millennial' (cataclysmic climate, overburdening education cost, oligarchic stratification) are still represented among those entering voting age and will be for a few more years at least. At some point in the not too distant future, we can expect a vast increase in technology and space travel to start to create a multi-planet species. A newer 'post millennial' generation will be probably the first to be born outside this declining and depleted Earth.
Only 1,626 voters (1.12%) of the current voter WM county voter database are 90 years or older. (e.g. born in 1929 or before). This means only a little more than 1% would be age 10 or older in 1939. If you are 80 years old this year you were just alive when Hitler's blitzkrieg across Poland 80 years ago effectively started WWII. The vote today is being decided more now by veterans of post WWII wars: Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars I and II. Not too mention the current generation soldiers, many of them in 800 worldwide bases, JSOC strike teams, patrolling our borders and worldwide defense and intelligence budgets that probably total in excess of $1T. And oh yeah: A Space Force!
Even with the Millennial generation trimmed to start at birth year 1983, the big baby blue bars in the first chart below dominate all of 2019 new voters. The second chart shows all active voters by generation (as defined above) by PrecinctDecade (as defined above). Boomers and GenXrs dominate these voting age groups. Click to enlarge the charts.
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| Age ~ PrecinctDecade for Registration Date in 2019. Click to enlarge the chart. |
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| Age ~ PrecinctDecade as of 4.30.2019.Click to enlarge the chart. |
There are 179 WM county precincts currently, but two have data hidden because of size for the 2018 Senate race (Maria Cantwell vs. Susan Hutchison). The code below use the Cantwell vs. Hutchison race to provide for five categories of precinct type:
- SD Strong Democrat
- LD Light Democrat
- Ind Independent
- LR Light Republican
- SR Strong Republican
library(data.table) R3.6
t1 = Senate[vdb[StatusCode == "A",],
list(MariaCantwell,SusanHutchison,div=MariaCantwell/(MariaCantwell + SusanHutchison)),by=,.EACHI][,.N,.(PrecinctID,MariaCantwell,SusanHutchison,div)]
t1[div <= .55 & div >= .45,Region:= "Ind"]
t1[div > .55 & div <= .65,Region:= "LD"]
t1[div > .65,Region:= "SD"]
t1[div < .45 & div >= .35,Region:= "LR"]
t1[div < .35,Region:= "SR"]
| PrecinctCode | Count 04.30.2019 | New2019 | Projected Precinct.Type | MCantwell | SHutchison |
| 101 | 1087 | 10 | SD | 558 | 194 |
| 102 | 683 | 14 | Ind | 228 | 251 |
| 103 | 849 | 19 | Ind | 365 | 299 |
| 104 | 509 | 2 | LR | 197 | 242 |
| 105 | 492 | 14 | LD | 207 | 161 |
| 106 | 911 | 24 | Ind | 287 | 328 |
| 107 | 1164 | 31 | Ind | 419 | 407 |
| 108 | 1220 | 16 | Ind | 393 | 428 |
| 110 | 1044 | 18 | LR | 319 | 422 |
| 111 | 944 | 22 | LR | 272 | 430 |
| 112 | 209 | 3 | LR | 56 | 95 |
| 113 | 722 | 19 | LR | 203 | 368 |
| 114 | 542 | 20 | LR | 149 | 250 |
| 115 | 861 | 21 | SR | 207 | 445 |
| 116 | 528 | 10 | SR | 71 | 335 |
| 117 | 600 | 8 | SR | 69 | 391 |
| 118 | 931 | 18 | SR | 175 | 490 |
| 119 | 618 | 22 | Ind | 229 | 245 |
| 120 | 806 | 22 | SR | 211 | 419 |
| 121 | 647 | 26 | LR | 196 | 288 |
| 122 | 554 | 19 | LR | 150 | 260 |
| 123 | 546 | 22 | LR | 162 | 245 |
| 124 | 540 | 9 | LR | 147 | 257 |
| 125 | 985 | 16 | SR | 224 | 456 |
| 126 | 1240 | 46 | Ind | 455 | 490 |
| 127 | 1124 | 30 | LR | 383 | 499 |
| 129 | 845 | 21 | LR | 289 | 372 |
| 130 | 562 | 9 | LR | 162 | 237 |
| 131 | 964 | 27 | LR | 316 | 417 |
| 132 | 731 | 21 | Ind | 293 | 276 |
| 133 | 1083 | 23 | SD | 439 | 116 |
| 134 | 948 | 10 | LD | 464 | 255 |
| 135 | 723 | 23 | LD | 371 | 204 |
| 136 | 1214 | 29 | SD | 558 | 287 |
| 137 | 1056 | 27 | SD | 473 | 122 |
| 138 | 797 | 20 | SD | 543 | 148 |
| 139 | 378 | 1 | SR | 33 | 277 |
| 140 | 1188 | 28 | SR | 157 | 706 |
| 141 | 925 | 29 | SR | 208 | 503 |
| 142 | 1014 | 22 | Ind | 297 | 287 |
| 143 | 657 | 14 | SD | 340 | 147 |
| 144 | 894 | 6 | SR | 116 | 598 |
| 145 | 1006 | 14 | SR | 265 | 512 |
| 146 | 1075 | 38 | SR | 243 | 536 |
| 147 | 881 | 36 | LR | 273 | 354 |
| 148 | 1044 | 25 | LR | 275 | 367 |
| 149 | 657 | 10 | LR | 184 | 325 |
| 150 | 977 | 13 | LR | 281 | 463 |
| 151 | 974 | 23 | LR | 327 | 408 |
| 152 | 854 | 15 | LR | 287 | 371 |
| 153 | 922 | 17 | LR | 290 | 363 |
| 154 | 559 | 8 | Ind | 209 | 228 |
| 155 | 612 | 12 | LR | 183 | 264 |
| 156 | 360 | 5 | LR | 116 | 159 |
| 157 | 296 | 5 | Ind | 110 | 130 |
| 158 | 395 | 5 | Ind | 143 | 157 |
| 159 | 142 | 2 | LD | 115 | 86 |
| 160 | 949 | 14 | SD | 497 | 242 |
| 161 | 593 | 4 | SD | 311 | 155 |
| 162 | 742 | 11 | LD | 341 | 254 |
| 163 | 762 | 11 | LD | 386 | 223 |
| 164 | 270 | 2 | Ind | 121 | 107 |
| 165 | 432 | 5 | Ind | 163 | 179 |
| 166 | 990 | 21 | LD | 418 | 317 |
| 167 | 135 | 1 | Ind | 50 | 54 |
| 168 | 974 | 11 | Ind | 429 | 372 |
| 169 | 1161 | 27 | SD | 659 | 287 |
| 170 | 549 | 6 | LD | 264 | 168 |
| 171 | 921 | 9 | SD | 538 | 212 |
| 172 | 586 | 11 | LD | 278 | 163 |
| 173 | 653 | 16 | SD | 342 | 184 |
| 174 | 852 | 15 | SD | 458 | 189 |
| 175 | 1027 | 21 | SD | 588 | 209 |
| 176 | 709 | 20 | SD | 393 | 181 |
| 177 | 658 | 16 | SD | 355 | 147 |
| 178 | 1008 | 30 | SD | 539 | 215 |
| 179 | 203 | 1 | Ind | 72 | 84 |
| 180 | 686 | 14 | SD | 422 | 168 |
| 181 | 1199 | 20 | LD | 561 | 343 |
| 182 | 1352 | 29 | LD | 530 | 403 |
| 183 | 30 | 4 | LR | 9 | 12 |
| 201 | 1350 | 34 | LD | 698 | 377 |
| 202 | 1064 | 26 | SD | 419 | 173 |
| 203 | 1150 | 41 | SD | 517 | 275 |
| 204 | 782 | 27 | SD | 332 | 157 |
| 205 | 630 | 13 | SD | 337 | 141 |
| 206 | 1258 | 47 | SD | 669 | 194 |
| 207 | 583 | 12 | SD | 368 | 105 |
| 208 | 1384 | 36 | SD | 832 | 195 |
| 209 | 822 | 22 | SD | 537 | 126 |
| 210 | 1019 | 19 | SD | 767 | 105 |
| 211 | 1196 | 34 | LD | 497 | 288 |
| 212 | 917 | 38 | SD | 397 | 208 |
| 213 | 1032 | 18 | SD | 613 | 215 |
| 214 | 686 | 15 | SD | 509 | 79 |
| 215 | 859 | 11 | SD | 657 | 118 |
| 216 | 986 | 21 | SD | 704 | 88 |
| 217 | 623 | 10 | LD | 297 | 193 |
| 218 | 852 | 27 | SD | 404 | 168 |
| 219 | 903 | 21 | SD | 490 | 176 |
| 220 | 1057 | 36 | SD | 457 | 236 |
| 221 | 810 | 17 | LD | 381 | 263 |
| 222 | 1014 | 17 | SD | 757 | 133 |
| 223 | 594 | 18 | SD | 457 | 47 |
| 224 | 431 | 29 | SD | 289 | 36 |
| 225 | 1346 | 48 | SD | 914 | 127 |
| 226 | 847 | 21 | SD | 577 | 47 |
| 227 | 975 | 24 | SD | 627 | 112 |
| 228 | 977 | 26 | SD | 669 | 78 |
| 229 | 1219 | 40 | SD | 650 | 153 |
| 230 | 972 | 31 | SD | 461 | 105 |
| 231 | 1296 | 36 | SD | 693 | 180 |
| 232 | 934 | 18 | SD | 508 | 236 |
| 233 | 875 | 22 | SD | 510 | 170 |
| 234 | 832 | 16 | SD | 457 | 230 |
| 235 | 523 | 6 | SD | 293 | 140 |
| 237 | 931 | 9 | SD | 523 | 221 |
| 238 | 595 | 11 | LD | 304 | 195 |
| 239 | 1062 | 23 | SD | 559 | 220 |
| 240 | 893 | 20 | SD | 529 | 184 |
| 241 | 769 | 10 | SD | 403 | 172 |
| 242 | 565 | 11 | SD | 353 | 102 |
| 243 | 832 | 20 | SD | 504 | 190 |
| 244 | 907 | 23 | SD | 648 | 114 |
| 245 | 759 | 7 | SD | 635 | 65 |
| 246 | 935 | 24 | SD | 624 | 61 |
| 247 | 1113 | 45 | SD | 713 | 71 |
| 248 | 967 | 46 | SD | 573 | 160 |
| 249 | 1038 | 18 | SD | 595 | 216 |
| 250 | 1011 | 23 | SD | 727 | 145 |
| 251 | 722 | 16 | SD | 510 | 124 |
| 252 | 307 | NA | SD | 269 | 25 |
| 253 | 1387 | 47 | SD | 874 | 118 |
| 254 | 712 | 12 | SD | 436 | 150 |
| 255 | 713 | 24 | SD | 402 | 101 |
| 256 | 869 | 25 | SD | 611 | 109 |
| 257 | 782 | 16 | SD | 568 | 51 |
| 258 | 1041 | 18 | SD | 781 | 50 |
| 259 | 576 | 9 | SD | 337 | 120 |
| 260 | 592 | 5 | SD | 350 | 170 |
| 261 | 583 | 5 | SD | 388 | 105 |
| 262 | 785 | 28 | SD | 529 | 87 |
| 263 | 1003 | 26 | SD | 657 | 88 |
| 264 | 739 | 14 | SD | 450 | 178 |
| 265 | 641 | 12 | SD | 355 | 164 |
| 266 | 800 | 16 | SD | 505 | 168 |
| 268 | 62 | 1 | Ind | 17 | 18 |
| 269 | 163 | 7 | NA | NA | NA |
| 271 | 162 | 1 | NA | NA | NA |
| 273 | 92 | 5 | NA | NA | NA |
| 301 | 1103 | 24 | Ind | 356 | 369 |
| 302 | 1271 | 26 | LD | 521 | 362 |
| 303 | 965 | 36 | Ind | 395 | 396 |
| 304 | 349 | 12 | LD | 123 | 88 |
| 401 | 612 | 23 | LR | 160 | 233 |
| 402 | 767 | 22 | LR | 241 | 334 |
| 501 | 1048 | 42 | Ind | 373 | 417 |
| 502 | 796 | 23 | Ind | 301 | 283 |
| 503 | 910 | 34 | Ind | 336 | 375 |
| 504 | 1073 | 37 | Ind | 373 | 362 |
| 505 | 733 | 27 | LD | 321 | 196 |
| 506 | 1028 | 39 | LD | 408 | 302 |
| 507 | 838 | 37 | Ind | 287 | 298 |
| 508 | 1113 | 41 | Ind | 368 | 360 |
| 509 | 782 | 21 | LR | 233 | 316 |
| 601 | 525 | 22 | SR | 146 | 318 |
| 602 | 858 | 14 | SR | 183 | 454 |
| 603 | 756 | 9 | SR | 148 | 417 |
| 604 | 1394 | 31 | SR | 256 | 777 |
| 605 | 1154 | 24 | SR | 230 | 645 |
| 606 | 868 | 16 | SR | 171 | 475 |
| 607 | 702 | 12 | SR | 122 | 427 |
| 608 | 772 | 13 | SR | 188 | 415 |
| 609 | 967 | 18 | SR | 161 | 580 |
| 610 | 947 | 23 | SR | 180 | 561 |
| 611 | 673 | 15 | SR | 103 | 396 |
| 701 | 869 | 27 | SR | 206 | 396 |
| 801 | 829 | 29 | LR | 192 | 351 |
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