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Friday, August 9, 2019

Election Summary: Mostly for Whatcom County but also some state data

Note:Updated some generational demographics  below the break - RMF 08/15/2019

Below are some preliminary numbers. They will change throughout the certification period.
Whatcom County currently has the the highest percentage turnout among the top fifteen counties for registered voters (39.33%). Statewide turnout is 29.39%.  Allmost all votes are counted. The WA SoS will certify this election on August 23rd. These are the 08/14 (morning) results  sort by Registered voters from https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20190806/Turnout.html  Click to enlarge the chart:



Notable Whatcom  County and 40th LD Results as of 08/14. Numbers may change until certification and new issuance of VRDB:

Whatcom County  from https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/whatcom/ :
  • 56,988 out of 147,256 voted Whatcom County Executive
  • 23,450 out of 58,124 voted for Bellingham Mayor
  • 35,913 out of ~96K voted in this 40th Primary.
40th LD candidate Ralph Miller(R) (who filed the mini reporting option with the PDC  which means less than $5K aggregate expenses or contributions each) ran close to Lovelett in Skagit :https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/skagit/   Ralph Miller is in second place for the 40th LD :  https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/LegislativeDistrict40.html .   Other candidates spent more than Mr. Miller. Click to enlarge the screen snip:


36K out of 96K registered voted in this 40th Primary.

Kershner(R) and Elenbaas(R) trounced their opponents in WM County Council districts 4 and 5. Tony Larson(R) is still topping Satpal Sidhu(D).  This primary appears to me to be a Republican victory. I would guess that would extend to many of the counties in the state. The age  numbers below are from the 08/06 matchback so they are not complete yet, but clearly the post 60 generation decided this ballot. Where the youth and middle-aged voters were in this election, I do not know:

Where Were The Youth?
These numbers are from State 08/06 matchback.  I will update when more current data is available.[1] For numbers from the State on age groups see here.

       Ages  Voted Registered   PCT
1:     LT30  52013     625151  8.32
2: BTW30.60 338160    2093746 16.15
3:    GTR60 505320    1238286 40.81

These numbers are from a Whatcom County 08/07 matchback:

                 Age Voted Registered  PCT
1:      Less Than 30  5025      28724 17.5
2: Between 30 and 60 22726      69905 32.5
3:   Greater Than 60 29708      48617 61.1

More Whatcom County Statistics from 8/7 matchback:
MB_[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
   BallotStatus     N
1:     Accepted 57459
2:         Sent 89182 # Sent but not returned
3:     Rejected   661 # some will be cured

MB_[,.N,.(BallotStatus,BallotReceived)][,dcast(.SD,BallotReceived ~ BallotStatus,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
    BallotReceived Accepted Rejected  Sent
 1:                       0        0 89182 # sent,no return
 2:      7/22/2019       81        0     0
 3:      7/23/2019     3358       18     0
 4:      7/24/2019     2517       16     0
 5:      7/25/2019     4536       15     0
 6:      7/26/2019     2677       27     0
 7:      7/29/2019     3629       42     0
 8:      7/30/2019     2664       24     0
 9:      7/31/2019     2041       17     0
10:       8/1/2019     3248       33     0
11:       8/2/2019     2587       22     0
12:       8/5/2019     7134       72     0
13:       8/6/2019    13302      148     0
14:       8/7/2019     9685      227     0

 [1] The code to analyze matchbacks is complex because that data has mixed Ballot Statuses that change as certification progresses and also because primaries in 'local' year elections which involve partial county votes.  Here is the state 08/06/2019 BallotStatus and ChallengeReason tallies:

t3[,.N,.(BallotStatus)][order(-N)]
   BallotStatus      N
1:     Accepted 879121
2:     Received  16373
3:     Rejected  10401

t3[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
              ChallengeReason      N
 1:                           895335
 2:  Signature Does Not Match   4237
 3:                  Unsigned   3189
 4:                      HOLD   1042
 5:          Other than Voter    524
 6:             Undeliverable    478
 7:       Ballot Style Change    359
 8:                    Review    232
 9:                  Deceased    181
10:              Marked Moved     75
11:          Canvassing Board     74
12:      No Signature on File     51
13:               ID Required     30
14:                   Invalid     27
15:            Empty Envelope     21
16:                      Hold     14
17: Witness Signature Missing      9
18:         Power of Attorney      8
19:    Signed by Someone Else      5
20:         Voter Name Change      4

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