2018 Filing week is over... (Part III)

Click to Enlarge WA Map of LD, CD, Precincts.

WA State filing week is over. The state lists 416 Legislative, Congressional, Judicial and Federal candidates for office.  Each county also has local offices.You can find more information at these URLs:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? 

Download:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=XX # all state
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=WM # Whatcom 


Some lists with R Code (from data.table library) below the break. Font needs wide screen and probably some zoom.

Here Comes Filing Week : Part II

Filing week is upon us. You can check here:

 

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? # Entire State

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?countyCode=wm # Whatcom County

 

Below the break are tables of GE 2016 Presidential and Legislative votes by County and Legislative District.

A Postgres query  like this:

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 28003 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 22395 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 30850 # “Rest of State” not KI

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 40758 # “Rest of State” not KI

can be confusing because it shows King County ("KI") and Rest of the State ("ROS") in two separate entries.

Far below, LDs split between KI and “ROS” are expressed like this as an R (data.table) query:

  LD KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

  1     5987     16836      14921       31482 22823   46403

or split between LD ~ County for KI and “ROS” like this:

   LD County KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

   1     KI     5987         0      14921           0  5987   14921

   1     SN        0     16836          0       31482 16836   31482

Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

-RMF 1:12 PM 5/14/2018

Here Comes Filing Week 2018 (Part I)

Filing week starts May 14th. 2018 is a Congressional and Legislative District election year. The maps of WA state above give counties in blue outline, LDs in solid color and CDs in black outline.  The more densely populated the district the smaller the size of the  district.  The maps above are created data from WA OFM. Click to enlarge charts in a separate window. Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy is winning by 237 votes as of Monday 4/30/2018. The Blaine School District showed strong anti-tax sentiment in comparison to the 2016 Blaine School District levy.  This race could have gone either way. The numbers below the break are from Friday, April 27. This race will be certified May 4.

Cross County Active Voter Migrations: GE2016 to GE2017

 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017.   Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library.

"LCD" and LD Projections: 2018

These are "LCD" projections for 2018. Each LD part is coupled with their CD match (e.g. 42_1, 42_2) to give a more realistic picture of what races are competitive and what are not based on 2016 Presidential Votes. When I look at it this way, only LDs 6,10,17,24,26,44 represent competitive races. (e.g. margins less than 5% for the LD.) Some 'LCD's are competitive but the LD race is drowned out by the strength of one party in the opposing LCD(s). Not all LDs are split between CDs. The more dense, urban LDs in Seattle are often encompassed by one CD.

WCD 2018 Election Results

In the 2018 Whatcom Conservation District election,  Alan Chapman (endorsed by both the Riveter's Collection and the Whatcom Democrats) appears to have defeated incumbent Larry Helm by 31 votes. Last year, Heather Christianson defeated Suzanne Snyder. Click on the chart to enlarge. View this data on a wide screen. Candidate statements here.

March 2018: Data For Counties, LD and CD.

For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB  and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.

Republicans encroaching on COB precincts?

Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:

• 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
• 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
• 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.

These elections had

• completely different turnouts
• precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
• partial precincts for some of the February Special Election 
• and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections. 

I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday.  This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters.  Click to enlarge chart.

Certified February Special Election Data

Below are cor.tests for 2016 and 2017 candidates vs. 2018 BPS501 results per precinct.  A full list of non protected precinct data is below with 2016, 2017 election results and 2018 BPS bond results. You will need to view this on a wide screen, not a phone. This is stats heavy with no added chit chat.

How the BPS 501 Bond Vote played Out (updated with Final match back and Results)

Both BPS 501 bond and MBS 507 levy have passed.

Bellingham Public School  district 501 (90) 2017 precincts outlined in Black and White. Color scale for City and County are 2016 precinct boundaries colored blue to red representing the  Clinton - Trump difference.  Color and outlines demarcate changes between 2016 and 2017 precincts. Click to enlarge. An online map of precincts from the WC Election office is here.

There were two school district financing measures on your ballot this week. If you live in either the Mt. Baker 507 or Bellingham 501 school districts you could and did vote for:

• Bellingham School District 501 Proposition 2018-1 General Obligation Bonds - $155,000,000
• Mt Baker School District 507 Proposition 2018-2 Facilities and Technology Levy

For more information on the BPS 501 Bond itself please see More Information at bottom of this post. The rest of this post contains statistical data simulating the BPS 501 bond vote from 2016 and 2017 election results. Matchback totals and projections have been updated with the final results.  Both the Bond and Levy passed.

Men, Women, Trump, Clinton, Rural, Urban Votes

Below are a couple of interesting "top 20" precinct lists. The first list are precincts in GE 2016  that had at least 75 more male voters than females ranked by votes for Hillary Clinton. The second list are precincts in GE 2016 that had at least 75 more female voters than males ranked by votes for Donald Trump. In these 40 precincts, it appears rural/urban dynamics are overcoming gender dynamics. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 WA Voterdb, so they will be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS. 

Top Clinton and Trump Precincts GE2016

Top 100 GE 2016 precincts ranked by percentage with 50 or more votes each for either Trump (beige-left col) or Clinton (azure-right col).  These lists emphasize the Rural/Urban party split in WA. Click to enlarge charts. Best viewed on desktop.

2016 DJT HRC Precinct Correlations for all WA Counties

R's correlation coefficient  gives us a positive <-> negative correlation score (1,-1). "0" describes no correlation. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS.  Here are the correlation coefficient for 2016 GE precinct votes for DJT (Trump) and HRC (Clinton) from:

2016 LD and CD with KI separated

These should be 2016 WA Congressional and Legislative District returns with KING County votes separated as "KI". The results are merged with 12/07/16 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS. 

LD x County Matrices

County by LD matrix from 11/2017 voterdb plus a matrix difference: 11/2017 - 07/2016.

GE 2016 and GE 2017: Top Counties

The tables below represent WA counties with over 50K good ballots returned for either GE 2016 and GE 2017.  Information for this post comes from the WA SoS Research and United States Census CVAP data. These 14 counties represent 88% of registered voters for the 39 WA counties for GE 2017.  Columns:

County: These are WA Counties > 50K Registered
Registered: Registered at Time of GE (General Election)
Ballots: Ballots Good Returned
TO: PCT TO ('Turn Out') or Ballots Good Returned / Registered
Ballots_CVAP: PCT Ballots Good Returned / 2015 (released 2017) Citizen Voting Age Population
diff: difference between TO PCT and Ballots_CVAP PCT

Important Links for the 2017 General Election

VOTE EARLY! VOTE DEMOCRAT!! TELL YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE!!!

Part I Primary Election Post Mortem: Matchbacks and Tips on How to Avoid a Challenged Ballot

The results of August 2017  Primary Election will be certified on Tuesday evening. Monday will be the last chance for 200 plus voters to cure their challenged ballots.   Wednesday, many people will be analyzing the final results with implications for the November 2017 General Election. But as a prelude, I would like to talk about the mechanics of the vote with some public matchback  and return numbers available as of last Friday (08/11/2017). These numbers will be updated in the days to come, but are sure enough for my general points.

Vote Democrat in the August 1st Primary !!

Democrat Endorsements Here     Meet the Candidates Here