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Wednesday, November 13, 2019

State Initiative Totals, Differences for 11/12/2019


State Initiative Totals:


Race                 Maintained Repealed Approved Rejected     Yes     No
Advisory Vote No. 20     659713  1118043       
Advisory Vote No. 21     738362  1049771       
Advisory Vote No. 22     676612  1102429       
Advisory Vote No. 23    1213133   597736       
Advisory Vote No. 24     657735  1098464       
Advisory Vote No. 25     789956   976514       
Advisory Vote No. 26     791661   972060       
Advisory Vote No. 27     704892  1087500       
Advisory Vote No. 28     979432   788173       
Advisory Vote No. 29     623961  1144985       
Advisory Vote No. 30     782938   983966       
Advisory Vote No. 31    1005303   762931       
Measure No. 976                                               1017045 902004
Resolution No. 8200                       1207513   642646          
Measure No. 88                            920949    936155           

State Initiative Differences:


Race                  M-R      A-R    Y-N
Advisory Vote No. 20 -458330     
Advisory Vote No. 21 -311409     
Advisory Vote No. 22 -425817     
Advisory Vote No. 23  615397     
Advisory Vote No. 24 -440729     
Advisory Vote No. 25 -186558     
Advisory Vote No. 26 -180399     
Advisory Vote No. 27 -382608     
Advisory Vote No. 28  191259     
Advisory Vote No. 29 -521024     
Advisory Vote No. 30 -201028     
Advisory Vote No. 31  242372     
Measure No. 976                         115041
Resolution No. 8200             564867     
Measure No. 88                 -15206

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Some GE 2019 Analysis: Historical Summary and some Demographics

At over 2M votes, GE2019 will be the largest odd year volume turnout in recent WA history.  I will wait for the final results to compare turnout percentages. Here is where we stand as of the Monday (11/11) after election week:

Some projected turnout for GE 2019 as of 11/11/2019  state matchback:

          Registered  Voted   Turnout  Current_Date
Total 4,503,766 1,927,555 42.8% 11/11/2019

Projected  Turnout PCT  ==
(1,927,555 + 82,396) / 4,503,766 = 44.6%  with 82,396 (to be counted as of 11/11)

Projected Returns  ==
1,927.555 + 82,396 = 2,009,951


Historical odd year (local election) turnouts:


         Registered  Voted  Turnout  Final_Date
Total 4,265,433 1,582,481 37.1% 11/28/2017
Total 3,974,947 1,528,272 38.45% 11/30/2015
Total 3,914,786 1,772,290 45.27% 11/26/2013
Total 3,658,413 1,936,950 52.95% 12/06/2011
Total 3,583,278 1,823,364 50.89% 11/24/2009

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Matchback 11.08.2019: State and local counties


Summary:

Exactly 2,011,128 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (11/08/2019) statewide matchback Another 
31,483 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  As of 
11/08/2019 8:15 PM last night, Election Results WA has 1,877,878 tabulated (counted) with  133,459 ballots on hand to be processed (e.g. tabulated). Understanding ballot processing this time of year is complicated and Same Day Registration has increased that complexity. [Link to blog post coming here].  Although the previous matchbacks have  been dominated by those born in  1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79), younger generations are catching up in these later returns and it would be hard not to assume that has made all the difference for Democratic candidates in tight races throughout the state but especially in King and Whatcom Counties :

    Decade  Age Registered  Voted Turnout
 1:  1900s 110s         27      5    18.5
 2:  1910s 100s       1711    537    31.4
 3:  1920s  90s      44030  22336    50.7
 4:  1930s  80s     184015 122333    66.5
 5:  1940s  70s     492174 347617    70.6
 6:  1950s  60s     765293 472322    61.7
 7:  1960s  50s     756929 366183    48.4
 8:  1970s  40s     706611 274007    38.8
 9:  1980s  30s     784614 234508    29.9
10:  1990s  20s     672919 136223    20.2
11:  2000s  10s      71046  19020    26.8


Those born in 1940s or 1950s decades have a combined 819,939 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 46% of that (819,939total with 389,751 ballots accepted.  That "youth" or millennial vote in WA weighed in at last. If you have followed these matchbacks reports you know this was simply not the case in early voting.  The youth vote was not strong enough to stop i976, but they prevented a Republican rout in Seattle and Whatcom.  GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are  contributing 640,190 votes Please see 'Age by Statusbelow.  To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see hereWomen are currently out voting men in all but 2 small counties. The later balloting is now skewing heavily female. This is another sign that close races will fall to more liberal candidates.  For the state as a whole:

   BallotStatus  Female   Male
1:     Accepted 1030708 955802 # Ready for tabulation or tabulated
2:     Received    8258   7740 # In the chute
3:     Rejected   15011  16151 # Challenged or Rejected

For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes significantly now:

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  66253 59434
2:     Received     58    41
3:     Rejected    628   749

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing especially on a phone.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Post Election Day Ballots Counts for Election Week GE 2019 in WA


Ballot "Received Date" for WA as of 11/08/2019 from the 11/08/2019 state matchback.  I have chosen the last 20 days of ballot reception only. Horizontal lines at 100K, 250K, 400K. Click to enlarge the chart.

These are post election day of ballots counted (tabulated) as I have recorded them from https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20191105/Turnout.html . There are still 133K estimated left to count (tabulate). This week has really been quite a ride:

ElectionDate         Counted
ER.11.06.2019.12AM 1035011
ER.11.06.2019.6PM  1199503
ER.11.06.2019.8.39PM 1217468
ER.11.07.2019.12PM 1221808
ER.11.07.2019.7PM 1484065
ER.11.08.2019.815PM 1877878

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Precinct Return Totals for Whtacom 11.06.2019 results

Below the break is return information from last night's (11.06.2019)  matchback from Whatcom County Elections merged with Cantwell/Hutchison GE2018 returns plus my lca based predictors.  Last night's count (44.27%) maintained significant Republican leads in District 4, District 5, and Sheriff.  County Executive and  Assessor races were nudged into Democratic leads. 10K ballots are in the Whatcom hopper.  There are no candidate precinct totals for individual races as of this morning.  However, (as of 11/6) turnout for those precincts that voted for Susan Hutchison in GE2018 exceeds turnout for precincts that voted for Maria Cantwell in  GE2018.

t3[SusanHutchison > MariaCantwell,
.(Voted=fsum(Accepted.Received),Registered=fsum(PrecinctTotal),
Turnout=round(fsum(Accepted.Received)/fsum(PrecinctTotal),3) * 100 )]
   Voted Registered Turnout
1: 28857      53354    54.1 # Precinct Totals for Hutchison Precincts

 t3[SusanHutchison < MariaCantwell,
 .(Voted=fsum(Accepted.Received),Registered=fsum(PrecinctTotal),
Turnout=round(fsum(Accepted.Received)/fsum(PrecinctTotal),3) * 100 )]
   Voted Registered Turnout
1: 48490      93130    52.1 # Precinct Totals for Cantwell Precincts

Below the break table will need a (very) wide screen:

Matchback 11.06.2019: State and local counties


Summary:

Exactly 1,761,288 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (11/06/2019) statewide matchback Another 
22,180 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  As of 
11/06/2019 8:39 PM last night, Election Results WA has 1,217,468 tabulated (counted) with  623,814 ballots on hand to be processed (e.g. tabulated). Understanding ballot processing this time of year is complicated and Same Day Registration has increased that complexity. [Link to blog post coming here].  Although the previous matchbacks have  been dominated by those born in  1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79), younger generations are catching up in these later returns and that trend can reasonably be expected to continue in tabulation throughout the rest of the certification period:

    Decade  Age Registered  Voted Turnout
 1:  1900s 110s         27      5    18.5
 2:  1910s 100s       1711    480    28.1
 3:  1920s  90s      44030  20260    46.0
 4:  1930s  80s     184015 110489    60.0
 5:  1940s  70s     492174 305422    62.1
 6:  1950s  60s     765293 395781    51.7
 7:  1960s  50s     756929 291213    38.5
 8:  1970s  40s     706611 210698    29.8
 9:  1980s  30s     784614 176487    22.5
10:  1990s  20s     672919  99524    14.8
11:  2000s  10s      71046  13494    19.0

Those born in 1940s or 1950s decades have a combined 701,203 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 41% of that (701,203total with 289, 505 ballots accepted.  That "youth" or millennial vote in WA is now weighing in at last. As this trend continues, close races should begin to skew more liberal.   GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are  contributing 501,911 votes Please see 'Age by Status' below.  To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see hereWomen are currently out voting men in all but 3 counties. The later balloting is now skewing heavily female. This is another sign that close races should begin to fall to more liberal candidates.  For the state as a whole:

   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 835186 781774 # Ready for tabulation or tabulated
2:     Received  72434  64566 # In the chute
3:     Rejected  10421  11544 # Challenged or Rejected

For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes significantly now:

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  56970 51329
2:     Received   2372  2128
3:     Rejected    554   648

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing especially on a phone.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Matchback 11.05.2019: State and local counties


Summary:

Exactly 1,302,562 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (11/05/2019) statewide matchback Another 
15,487 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  The WA SoS  total  for this is 1,315,081  'Ballots Received' for a turnout of  29.2%. This statewide total is  ~88% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017  ('off year') general elections.  344,769 of these ballots are "on hand" and yet to be tabulated. It should be noted that the Election Results page for GE 2019 will now track ballot counts as the Ballot Statistics page will not be updated until certification. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here


Understanding ballot processing this time of year is complicated and Same Day Registration has increased that complexity. [Link to blog post coming here]

The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 582,446 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 33% of that (
582,446total with 191,373 ballots accepted.  That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election.   GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are  contributing 358,867 votes.  But keep in mind this amazing statistic: Those born in the 1930s (98,188 voted) are currently outvoting those born in the 1980s(65,939 voted). Say what you will about the older vote: Pre-wars and boomers vote like their lives depend upon it.   Please see 'Age by Status' below.  To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.


Women are currently out voting men in all but 5 counties.  I am reminded that I noticed a strong male registration trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:



   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 638587 605701 # Ready for tabulation
2:     Received  27832  25134 # In the chute
3:     Rejected   7225   8113 # Challenged or Rejected

For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes:

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  45855 41717
2:     Received    285   264
3:     Rejected    409   467

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing especially on a phone.

Precinct Return Totals for Whtacom 11.05.2019 results.

Below the break is return information from last night's (11.05.2019) 7:20 PM matchback from Whatcom County merged with Cantwell/Hutchison GE2018 returns plus my lca based predictorsLast nights low turnout (33.6%) resulted in significant Republican leads in District 4, District 5, County Executive, Sheriff and Assessor. 13K ballots are in the hopper. More will arrive today from those mailed yesterday or before and probably from remote county drop boxes.  There are no candidate precinct totals for individual races as of 6:15 AM this morning.  However, (as of 11/5) turnout for those precincts that voted for Susan Hutchison in GE2018 exceeds turnout for precincts that voted for Maria Cantwell in  GE2018.

t3[SusanHutchison > MariaCantwell,.(Voted=fsum(Accepted.Received),Registered=fsum(PrecinctTotal),Turnout=round(fsum(Accepted.Received)/fsum(PrecinctTotal),3) * 100 )]
   Voted Registered Turnout
   16371      53333    30.7

 t3[SusanHutchison < MariaCantwell,.(Voted=fsum(Accepted.Received),Registered=fsum(PrecinctTotal),Turnout=round(fsum(Accepted.Received)/fsum(PrecinctTotal),3) * 100 )]
Voted Registered Turnout

 25963      92986    27.9

More data below the break.

Monday, November 4, 2019

Matchback 11.04.2019: State and local counties

Summary:

Exactly 975,219 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in tonight's (11/04/2019) statewide matchback Another 
11,409 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  The WA SoS  total  for this is 984,433  'Ballots Received' for a turnout of  21.9%. This statewide total is  ~66% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017  ('off year') general elections. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here

The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 459,317 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 29% of that (
459,317total with 131,903 ballots accepted.  That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election.   GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are  contributing 252,007 votes.  But keep in mind this amazing statistic: Those born in the 1930s (82,161 voted) are currently outvoting those born in the 1980s(79,844 voted). Say what you will about the older vote: Pre-wars and boomers vote like their lives depend upon it.   Please see 'Age by Status' below.  To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.


Women are currently out voting men in all but 10 counties.  I am reminded that I noticed a strong male registration trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:



   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 476533 460490 # Ready for tabulation
2:     Received  18122  16203 # In the chute
3:     Rejected   5292   5984 # Challenged or Rejected

For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes:

   BallotStatus Female  Male
1:     Accepted  33121 30600
2:     Received     62    57
3:     Rejected    312   340

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:

Get your ballots in on time and properly marked!

A Google Earth representation of drop boxes across Whatcom County. See http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1863/Ballot-Drop-Box-Locations for the most current updated list. Click to enlarge the map.  More suggestions below the break.

Saturday, November 2, 2019

11.04.2019 Whatcom County lca Predictions

Updated with 11/04/2019 state matchbacks. -RMF


For Whatcom County from latent class modeling from the County's 11.04.2019 (Friday) state matchback. Don't click on that 11/04 state matchback link unless you have big data skills. Excel won't cut it at this volume of ballots. The first columns of D and R are predicted potential. The second row is predicted from BallotStatus == "Accepted". However, I am missing 637 (BallotStatus == "Accepted") predictions from my model. These registrants added after October 1, 2019.  Statewide, roughly 22K net additions have been added to the VRDB since October 1st. A final state matchback will be issued tonight very close to the expected Election Day returns. These predictions will be updated tonight. No warranty for any prediction is expressed or implied for these predictions. Please use at your own risk.


    District     D     R     D     R
1: District_1 22223  3962  6207  1128
2: District_2 24178  3637  6392  1445
3: District_3 17752 11259  4849  3684
4: District_4 13906 14517  3287  5550
5: District_5 14991 15407  4490  4295
6:      LD_40 36651  7343 10149  2550
7:      LD_42 56399 41439 15076 13552

Will those under Age 50 Vote this election?

Updated with 11/4/2019 matchbacks -RMF
I hope the dire consequences of this table for the upcoming election this Tuesday are apparent to everyone. Am I assuming too much? This data is from 11/04/2019 State Matchback and the WA state VRDB from October 1, 2019. Registered means StatusCode == "Active". Voted  means BallotStatus == "Accepted".  Age here is really a Decade (Age%/%10) to give us a decade range such that  '20s' == 20:29 years of age. Encourage all your under 50s to vote!! Click to enlarge the table.