Part I : 2019 Primary Final Matchback Analysis

Part I of an  analysis of the FINAL matchback from the Whatcom County 2019 Primary.  The small print requires big screen ideally. Will not display well on cellphones. - RMF

Predictions for the 2019 General Election: County Council at Large

The charts below represent two twenty column tables that sort by the largest difference of

(1) Maria Cantwell's 2018 GE tally  vs. Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals.
(2) Susan Hutchison's 2019 GE tally vs Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals for her three combined Republican opponents. A sum of this type of potential difference of all precincts would give a 13,405 vote difference to Carol Frazey:

• SCWMCF[,fsum(diff)]  33,425 # Cantwell - Frazey
• SCWMHC[,fsum(diff)] 20,020 # Hutchison - CombinedR
• SCWMCF[,fsum(diff)] - SCWMHC[,fsum(diff)]  13,405

This lead could be considered in addition to the 7K Frazey votes finished ahead of  her three combined Republican opponents. There is no intersection between the two sets of 20 precincts below. Clearly, the "all county" races are the Democrats to lose. But can they get all their faithful to vote in an 'off year' or local election? Click to enlarge the charts.

Election Summary: Mostly for Whatcom County but also some state data

Note:Updated some generational demographics  below the break - RMF 08/31/2019 . For more information on demographics from the final Whatcom County matchback see this post.

These are primary turnouts for the last 5 years. Note that 'Registered' here is strictly those voters involved in the Primary election. In odd (local) election years, many counties have partial precinct participation:

Year  Registered BallotsRet TO  LastUpdate

2019 3,967,681 1,173,009 29.56% 08/20/2019 

2018 4,299,309 1,753,545 40.79% 08/21/2018

2017 3,781,977 1,017,946 26.92% 08/15/2017

2016 4,102,624 1,431,058 34.88% 08/16/2016

2015 3,356,735   817,876 24.37% 08/19/2015

WA State MatchBack data from 08.05.2019

Below are WA state matchback return information for 08.05.2019 [source].  Official (pre-result) update for the primary can be found here: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx. My totals are derived from the state issued matchbacks only. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 08.05.2019. I am sticking with the July 17th VRDB totals for total voter 'Count' for this post:

   CountyCode   Count    Accepted   Received Rejected
   Total        4432473  726900     6308    11641

Statewide turnout is at Ballot Statistics was 18.8% as of 08/05/2019 5PM . That will change a lot in the next two reporting days. My data gives it at 16.4% with 726,900 'Accepted' votes. This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary. 

   (726900/4432473) * 100
   16.399

I have statewide rejection (challenged ballots) at 1.56% with 11,641 'Rejected' votes.  Please check https://voter.votewa.gov  | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
   
  11641/(726900+6308+11641) * 100
  1.5629

A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane,Whatcom and King outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots.  However, most of these are "undeliverables" which only ten counties are reporting now. See this post here for more information on Challenged Ballots.

Those "SDR", "Signature Does Not Match", "Undeliverable", "Unsigned", Ballot Challenged Blues...

I am publishing some statistics and thoughts I have shared with Benton county and other Democrats recently about Ballot Challenge statuses in this first "Same Day Registration"  election in WA state. The discussion below the break is long and technical and contains hypothetical statements. Here is the "bottom line" for you as a WA voter:

• If you have not received your ballot yet, call or visit your County Elections department.
• If you have mailed or dropped into a drop box your ballot, check https://voter.votewa.gov | Ballot Status to make sure your ballot has been 'Accepted'.
• If your ballot has other status (see types below), you may have to contact your County Elections department to 'cure' your ballot either now or during the "Certification" period.

Do not delay any of this. The Election period is over Tuesday.

WA State MatchBack data from 07.31.2019

Below are WA county return information for 07.31.2019 [source]. Some smaller counties (AS, GA, SM, WK, WT) are not yet reporting.  Those counties may not have 2019 Primary election candidates. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 07.31.2019:

   CountyCode   Count     Accepted Received Rejected
   Total        4432473   506618   5634     10048

Statewide turnout is at 11.43% with 506,618 'Accepted' votes. This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary. In addition, 'special filing periods' are now open for unfilled races in certain counties: 

   (506618/4432473) * 100
   11.43

Statewide rejection is at 1.93% with 10,048 'Rejected' votes.  Please check https://voter.votewa.gov  | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
   
  (10048/(506618+5634+10048)) * 100
  1.9238

A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane,Whatcom and King outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots: 

Column Totals represent:
Count    # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)


See here for list of County Codes with map.

WM MatchBack data from 07.31.2019

Hot take: With 21,506 Primary ballots ready for tabulation, we are seeing a high turnout of red, purple, and blue precincts.  200 series precincts (Bellingham) are generally under reporting.  Many red and purple county precincts are reporting high numbers of votes.

Below is a matchback report for 07.31.2019 for the Whatcom Primary. Far below find all Whatcom County precincts in numerical order with their 2018 Cantwell/Hutchison totals. The two immediate following tables give us precinct Top Performers and Least Performers to date. Get your Ballots in! And remember, this election is the start of SDR statewide ("Same Day Registration"). There are brand new laptops in the lobby of the Elections department in the County Courthouse ready to register you in person!  If you are already registered (please check) and need to change your address or need to change your registration in any way, please visit: https://voter.votewa.gov and Whatcom County Elections.   There is a "Ballot Status" section in https://voter.votewa.gov. There, you can check to see the status of your returned ballot. Remember both remote drop boxes and vote by mail can take some time to be received by Elections.  If your ballot is challenged and for all other concerns, please visit or call Whatcom County Elections. Please Vote!!

WA State MatchBack data from 07.30.2019

Below are WA county return information for 07.30.2019 [source]. Some smaller counties (AS, GA, SM, WK, WT) are not yet reporting. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 07.30.2019:

    CountyCode   Count     Accepted Received Rejected
    Total        4432473   445536   12876     9997

Statewide turnout is still an anemic 10% This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary: 

       Statewide Turnout (Accepted/Count)

       (445536/4432473) * 100
        10.052

A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane and Whatcom outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots: 

Column Totals represent:
Count    # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)

See here for list of County Codes with map.

WA State MatchBack data from 07.29.2019

Beow are WA county return information for 07.29.2019 [source]. Some smaller counties (AS, GA, SM, WK, WT) are not yet reporting. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 07.29.2019:

   CountyCode   Count     Accepted  Received  Rejected
   Total        4432473   370349    24447     8572

Statewide turnout is still an anemic 8.35%.This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary: 

       Statewide Turnout (Accepted/Count)

       (370349/4432473) * 100
       [1] 8.3554

A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane and Whatcom outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots: 

Column Totals represent:
Count    # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)

See here for list of County Codes with map.

WM MatchBack data from 07.29.2019

Hot takes: With 16,666 Primary ballots ready for tabulation, we are seeing a high turnout of red, purple, and blue precincts.  200 series precincts (Bellingham) are generally under reporting.  Many red and purple county precincts are reporting high numbers of votes. Today, Monday July 29th is the online registration address update deadline. 

Below is a quick and dirty matchback report for 07.29.2019 for the Whatcom Primary. Far below find all Whatcom County precincts in numerical order with their 2018 Cantwell/Hutchison totals. The two immediate following tables give us precinct Top Performers and Least Performers to date. Get your Ballots in! And remember, this election is the start of SDR statewide ("Same Day Registration"). There are brand new laptops in the lobby of the Elections department in the County Courthouse ready to register you in person!  If you are already registered (please check) and need to change your address or need to change your registration in any way, please visit: https://voter.votewa.gov . Today, Monday July 29th is the online registration address update deadline.  There is a "Ballot Status" section in https://voter.votewa.gov. There, you can check to see the status of your returned ballot. Remember both remote drop boxes and vote by mail can take some time to be received by Elections.  If your ballot is challenged and for all other concerns, please visit or call Whatcom County Elections. Please Vote!!

WA State MatchBack data from 07.27.2019

Beow are WA county return information for 07.27.2019 [source]. Some smaller counties (AS, GA, SM, WK) are not yet reporting. These totals will change daily. This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary. Totals as of 07.27.2019:

   CountyCode   Count   Accepted Received Rejected
   Total        4432473 302602   6972     6536

Column Totals represent:
Count    # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)

See here for list of County Codes with map.

WM MatchBacks for 07.26.2019

Hot takes: With 13,176 Primary ballots ready for tabulation, there are more 600 series (Lynden) than 200 series (Bellingham) precincts with over 100 ballots accepted. 200 series precincts are generally under reporting.  Many red and purple county precincts are reporting high numbers of votes in this first week of voting.

Below is a quick and dirty matchback report for 07.26.2019 for the Whatcom Primary. Far below find all Whatcom County precincts in numerical order with their 2018 Cantwell/Hutchison totals. The two immediate following tables give us precinct Top Performers and Least Performers to date. Get your Ballots in! And remember, this election is the start of SDR statewide ("Same Day Registration"). There are brand new laptops in the lobby of the Elections department in the County Courthouse ready to register you in person!  If you are already registered (please check) and need to change your address or need to change your registration in any way, please visit: https://voter.votewa.gov . This Monday July 29th is the online registration address update deadline.  There is a "Ballot Status" section in https://voter.votewa.gov. There, you can check to see the status of your returned ballot. Remember both remote drop boxes and vote by mail can take some time to be received by Elections.  If your ballot is challenged and for all other concerns, please visit or call Whatcom County Elections. Please Vote!!

WM MatchBacks for 07.24.2019

Below is a quick and dirty matchback report for 07.24.2019 for the Whatcom Primary. Far below find all Whatcom County precincts in numerical order with their 2018 Cantwell/Hutchison totals. The two immediate following tables give us precinct Top Performers and Least Performers to date. Get your Ballots in! And remember, this election is the start of SDR statewide ("Same Day Registration"). There are brand new laptops in the lobby of the Elections department in the County Courthouse ready to register you in person!  If you are already registered (please check) and need to change your address or need to change your registration in any way, please visit: https://voter.votewa.gov . July 29th is the online registration address update deadline.  There is a "Ballot Status" section in https://voter.votewa.gov. There, you can check to see the status of your returned ballot. Remember both remote drop boxes and vote by mail can take some time to be received by Elections.  If your ballot is challenged and for all other concerns, please visit or call Whatcom County Elections. Please Vote!!

Checking Precincts after the WAVOTE upgrade

If you are an auditor or election official wondering how your precincts changed between 12/31/2018 and 07/17/2019, I could have some code for you and also a potentially helpful spreadsheet accurate as of July 17, 2019.  (email me) Merging all the precincts from two different VRDBs is a bit of trick. For reference, I have included the 2018 Senate Race results for each precinct. A snapshot of all this merged data looks like this:

REMEMBER TO VOTE IN THE 2019 PRIMARY

REMEMBER TO VOTE IN THE 2019 PRIMARY

Ballots should be in the mail for Whatcom County as of 07/17/2019. This year, same day registration legislation for the August 6th primary kicks in. Still, if you did not get your ballot or if you moved and forgot to change your address at https://voter.votewa.gov , make sure to do so before July 29th.There is a continuing rollout of the new 'votewa' upgrade. At this point, call the Whatcom County Elections office if you have any problems receiving your ballot at http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election . REMEMBER TO VOTE!!:

Here are more links: BTV Mayoral and Electoral Forum:

• Bellingham Mayoral Forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozW39AUqKhk June 19th 2019
• Ferndale LVW Mayoral Forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmsyM_sHr4g July 16th 2019
• Ferndale LVW Mayoral Candidate Forums: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcEyi678WCA July 16th
• 2019 Election Candidate Forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMV7uAsysV0 July 20th 2019

Candidate Mayoral Links for Bellingham:

• http://votepinkyvargas.com
• https://www.aprilbarker.com
• https://sethfleetwood.com
• https://www.obrienformayor.org

Whatcom County Executive Links:

• https://electkarenburke.com
• https://votesatpalsidhu.com
• https://www.jimboyleforwhatcom.com
• https://votetonylarson.com

Whatcom County Election Department Links:

• http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election
• https://voter.votewa.gov/GenericVoterGuide.aspx?e=565&c=37#

WA SOS Websites:

• https://voter.votewa.gov *IMPORTANT* Registration and Updates here
• https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/