The Campaign Financing War 07/27/2014 : Part II

Out of state donations to Republican candidates in WA 42nd  LD  are outdistancing Democratic candidates and powering the Republican party to a significant lead in the campaign finance war.

This is an update to Part I.  In the charts below, Republicans are red, Democrats are blue and the X axis label has respective contribution totals. Unlabeled Y Axis are dollars. Unlabeled X Axis are donors. All data is from the PDC. Click on the graphs to enlarge.

As total 42nd LD contributions near $400K, the Democratic candidates in the 42nd are trailing the Republican candidates $247K : $144K in the financing war. Although the Democrats show strength in donation numbers and smaller donations, they are being soundly defeated on the whole.

Your Ballot has arrived! At least it should have...

Cate Blanchett as  Lady Galadriel in "The Fellowship of the Ring"

 In addition to the official directions printed above, I am reprinting some advice (albeit with some edits) from a post I did four years ago on filling out your ballot and the insecurity of the vote by mail process:

How many will vote? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part III

The key question for the Democrats in the 2014 election is whether or not they can turnout votes as strongly as they did in either the 2013 or (best bet) the 2012 General Elections. Clearly, when the turnout increases, the Democrats win in the 42nd. Cantwell, Obama, and Inslee all either won or held their ground in the 42nd in the 2012 General Election. The turnout, with OFA (e.g. Team Obama) in town was spectacular.  The 2013 turnout under Whatcom Wins and the Washington Conservation Voters couldn't quite match it, despite the fact that the turnout was good enough for the Democrats to reclaim the County Council. Looking at active voters as of 05/08/2014, we see a ~28K difference between those who voted in these elections :

Fwd: Primary Election endorsements

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Greg Haffner, WA Democrats" <member@wa-democrats.org>
Date: Jul 18, 2014 12:20 PM
Subject: Primary Election endorsements
To: "Ryan Ferris" <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Just a quick note —

Ballots for the Primary Election are in the mail this week. You have just a few weeks to get your ballot in the mail — Join Democrats across the state and mail your ballot by August 5th.

As a voter and concerned citizen, you know that every election matters. Your Primary ballot features critical races — for Congress, State Legislature, and local office — that will have a profound impact on our country and state.

If you're not sure which candidates should get your vote, we can help! There are Democratic Party endorsements for races up and down your ballot.

CLICK HERE TO FIND DEMOCRATIC PARTY ENDORSEMENTS

Just enter your name and location information, and you'll find a list of endorsements customized for your Primary ballot.

How PURPLE is my precinct? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part II

"Are you discontented with the part you have been assigned in the whole? Recall the alternatives: Providence or atoms, and how many are the demonstrations, that the cosmos is a city."  Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius as quoted here.

The 2013 General Election: The Democrat/Republican divide as seen from the cumulative precinct returns for County Council 1A, 2A, 3A races. This chart shows the classic BLUE/RED City/County split with high density Bellingham urban and near urban areas voting BLUE, while most of the county votes RED.  Click to Enlarge.

Voter Stability - Predicting Election Outcomes : Part I

The busy political map of Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.

Updated with some minor changes 1:41 PM 7/15/2014 -RMF
How do we predict voter outcomes?  How do we create lists of voters in order to contact all the important "swing" votes? Two predictors for voters are (1) past voting participation history and (2) precinct performance. We can say that a group of voters that has lived in a precinct that votes reliably RED or BLUE for some number of years has some level of predictability. I am looking at precincts vs. precincts, but the same prediction could therefore be made for any voters inside any one given precinct.  These type of probabilities are not the highly granular and storied 'micro-targeting' of OFA ('Team Obama') that was used in 2012, but they are a first step toward such.

Newest Snowden revelations show surveillance of prominent Americans

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/article/2014/07/09/under-surveillance/

Make Sure to Register to Vote in the Primary!!!

MAKE SURE

TO REGISTER TO VOTE!!!

July 7^th is the standard deadline for online voter registration for the 2014 primary election in the state of Washington. If you have moved, you must update your voter registration address now. If you need to change your address, check your voting record, or print out voter pamphlet information, you can do that at MY Vote WA.

Why you should check your Voter Registration at My Vote WA today...

A voter registration list contains a number of fields that give information about the voter and their voting history.  One record is your unique registration number. When I query those registration numbers for changes I find that Whatcom County is averaging about five thousand simultaneous additions and deletions for each of the last two years. This "voter churn" is significant. We have about 126K registered voters currently. By such a measure our yearly rate of "churn" or "turnover" is ~4%.

The state of WA is an ERIC state. For our county, this means an examination of the voter database that results in a 'cleansing' of the voter list is done each quarter at the state level.  However, all processes can be flawed which is why I recommend logging on to My Vote WA and checking that your ID is valid, that your address is up to date (otherwise how are you going to receive your ballot by mail?) and that your voting history is correct.  To do this you simply need your name and birth date.

Fwd: Downtown Plan - final public comment

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Cowles, Darby" <dkcowles@cob.org>
Date: Jun 19, 2014 9:02 AM
Subject: Downtown Plan - final public comment
To: "Cowles, Darby" <dkcowles@cob.org>
Cc:

THIS IS IT!  City Council will hold a public hearing on the Downtown Bellingham Plan and associated documents next Monday, June 23^rd.  The staff report and all attachments are available at this link:

http://www.cob.org/sirepub/mtgviewer.aspx?meetid=145&doctype=agenda&itemid=2607

If you have any final suggestions, or would like to recommend that Council approve the Downtown Plan, send an email to: ccmail@cob.org

Please contact me directly if you have any questions or would like a summary or discussion of any particular issue of interest.

Thanks to everyone who has been involved in this process over the past 2½ years!  It's been a true pleasure working with so many who care about the vitality of Downtown.  Updates on City Center implementation projects will continue to be sent to this email list.  If you'd like to be removed, please reply with "REMOVE" in the subject line.

Sincerely,

Darby Cowles, Senior Planner

Planning and Community Development
City of Bellingham, WA
360-778-8389

Downtown Planning Website (including all background information):  www.cob.org/mydowntown

My incoming and outgoing email messages are subject to public disclosure requirements per RCW 42.5

Looking at Primary Voting Patterns in Whatcom County: Part I

Under Construction 7:59 PM 6/19/2014. Technical  piece for this blog is ...
This piece starts an analysis of Primary voting patterns in Whatcom County. This means that we are looking at election turnout numbers only for those people currently registered to vote as of June 05, 2014. As of June 05, 2014,  the voter database for Whatcom County stood at 126418 registered voters. I present graphs with analysis. Click on these graphs to enlarge.

Upcoming Democrat Kickoffs

Upcoming Democrat Kickoff Facebook Pages:

• https://www.facebook.com/events/798250410194344  Seth Fleetwood Kickoff Campaign Tuesday June 17 Whatcom Museum 5:00 PM
• https://www.facebook.com/events/523732224405149 Satpal Sidhu Monday June 23 Squalicum Boat House 5:00pm - 7:30pm
• https://www.facebook.com/events/462463360563902/ Joy Monjure Kickoff Campaign Thursday June 26 BelleWood Acres 6:00 PM

The Campaign Financing War 06.13.2014 : Why the Republicans will clobber the Democrats in the 42nd LD this fall.

42nd LD contributions to date: Democrats vs. Republicans reported as of 06.13.2014

After reading Riley's Sweeney post, I decided to dig into campaign financing for WA 42nd LD. The results show the Republican party outrageously 'out fundraising' the Democratic party. I am going to guess this is to be a state wide trend; but such analysis will have to come later.  For now, I conclude this:  If the Democrats want to take back the 42nd LD, they will need a steroid enhanced fund raising effort.  In the charts below, Democrats are blue, Republicans are red and the X axis label has contribution totals. Unlabeled Y Axis are dollars. Unlabeled X Axis are donors. All data is from the PDC. Technical piece is here.

05.20.2014 Whatcom County Voter General Election Database: The Precincts....

Per Precinct Registrants(Blue) and Votes (Red) for the 2013 General Election.

Under Construction 9:23 PM 6/07/2014. Technical  piece for this blog is here. Below the break I have  assorted graphs to assist the viewer in examining the registration and turnout for the 2013 General Election by precinct. The charts below explicate five years of general election in Whatcom County for voters registered as of May 20,2014. This means that we are looking at election turnout numbers only for those people currently registered to vote as of May 20th, 2014. In the next piece, I will look at the 2600 plus voters who have registered or re-registered since the start of 2014 . As of 06.05.2014, the voter database for Whatcom County stood at 126418 registered voters.

When Kshama wins we all benefit!!! : "15 in Seattle is just a beginning. We have an entire world to win."

"What was lost through corporate loopholes is a reminder to us that outcomes are determined by the balance of forces. It is a reminder that we need to continue to build an even more powerful movement. A movement strong enough to overcome the counterattacks from business. A movement that goes on from 15 to win further gains to address the stunning income inequality workers face – a movement that will fight for rent control, taxes on millionaires & big developers, and full funding for all public services. 

I appeal to all workers to join the movement. The attempts of business to undermine 15 will continue, well after this vote today. They may submit legal challenges, they may challenge at the ballot, they may wait for their moment to make the “temporary” tip penalty permanent. 

But today’s message is clear: If we organize as workers, with a socialist strategy, we can tackle the chasm of income inequality and social injustice.
15 in Seattle is just a beginning. We have an entire world to win." 

Solidarity.

Kshama Sawant  "Transcript of My Speech on $15/HR Victory" 

 

05.20.2014 Whatcom County Voter General Election Database: Boomers vs. Millennials....

Currently active Whatcom County registered voters (as of May 20, 2014) profiled by Birthdate bins for the General Elections 2009 - 2013. 

Under Construction 8:04 AM 6/2/2014. Technical  piece for this blog is here and here.
This piece creates some artificial age groups from the 05.20.2014 Whatcom County (active) voter database. The charts below explicate five years of general election in Whatcom County for voters registered as of May 20,2014. This means that we are looking at election turnout numbers only for those people currently registered to vote as of May 20th, 2014. As of May 20th, the voter database for Whatcom County stood at 126283 registered voters. I present graphs with analysis. Click on these graphs to enlarge.

05.20.2014 Whatcom County Voter General Election Database: What Happened...

Under Construction 8:55 PM 5/31/2014 Technical Piece here.

What really happened  in the 2013 General Election? Why did so many voters either:

(a) not vote or
(b) not have their votes counted?

An original discussion of precincts with poor 2013 turnout is here. Let us examine some charts below the break. The charts below explicate five years of general election in Whatcom County for voters registered as of May 20,2014. This means that we are looking at election turnout numbers only for those people currently registered to vote as of May 20th, 2014. As of May 20th, the voter database for Whatcom County stood at 126283 registered voters. I present graphs with analysis. Click on these graphs to enlarge.

05.20.2014 Whatcom County Voter General Election Database: First Look

This piece starts an analysis series on the Whatcom County 2014 voter database. All pieces are under construction and subject to further edits in conclusion and data as the registration season progresses toward the General Election. A technical blog that references code and statistical issues is here.  The Whatcom County Voter database experiences continual flux and change for causes multivariate; this appears to be especially true in the last five election years. I have discussed "voter churn" in other posts (1,2). WA is an ERIC state. I will have further discussion of this year's ERIC cleansing.  Also a discussion of precincts with poor 2013 turnout is here. -RMF

The technical for this piece can be found here. The charts below explicate five years of general election in Whatcom County for voters registered as of May 20,2014. This means that we are looking at election turnout numbers only for those people currently registered to vote as of May 20th, 2014. As of May 20th, the voter database for Whatcom County stood at 126283 registered voters. I duplicate four sets of graphs with analysis. Click on these graphs to enlarge.

Median CEO pay in US tops $10 million - World Socialist Web Site

Median CEO pay in US tops $10 million - World Socialist Web Site

The bloodbath in Donetsk - World Socialist Web Site

The bloodbath in Donetsk - World Socialist Web Site

Testing for Evidence of Fukushima : Part V

This is my third attempt at testing my air filters with my Aware Electronics RM-80 this year. My first two attempts (1, 2) produced ambiguous results. However, I have refined my test methods. Let me give a fuller explanation of my testing and test environment. I have a now ten year old Carrier 'Infinity 16'  zoned heat pump system that provides continual fresh air. This is recommended for allergic asthmatics by some and I find that by and large I and our family is healthier with it. However, my filters trap lots of what appears to be 'carbon black' or essential carbon. I assume most of this is from wood burning in Bellingham which I discuss in detail  here.  Code for this post can be found  here and here.

Why the lone wolf is easily hunted down and killed....

David Stallheim has a passionate appeal for contributions for his legal appeals on "Get Whatcom Planning" in a post entitled "An Orwellian Time - Where Nothing Is What It Seems to Be". I don't know the full details of his pursuance of the "land disturbance violation" on the proposed GPT property that county council member Carl Weimer first alerted the general public to in July of 2011; but I recognize a familiar pattern in David's struggles to hold big business accountable to the rule of law here in Whatcom County and across the country.

Let's face it: very few of us have Carl Weimer's chutzpah or David Stallheim's courage and integrity.  Very few of us want to find ourselves in a hearing room with big energy on one side and a provincial hearing examiner between us and them.  Oh, we all write letters and blogs, and some march, and  some organize and appeal to the group for more support.  But the fragmented nature of unpaid activism and a balkanized progressivism here in the United States makes forcible activist reforms easily defeated by money and power and corruption.    Historically, it takes conditions approaching social revolution (WWI, Great Depression, Vietnam War, Iraq War) to coordinate and apply progressive social reform in any organized electoral and judicial fashion.

We should be honest about our limited electoral successes in Whatcom County.  The sole reason David Stallheim is not our chief executive in Whatcom County is because the GOP convinced us that voting for one conservative was somehow better than voting for the other. We are not just easily bullied and fragmented; we are easily fooled as well. Without Tom Steyer's funding, would Whatcom Wins have even elected a Democratic majority to council last fall? I doubt it.  If David Stallheim's hearing is any indication, we won't stop the coal terminal regardless. In truth, there is no Republican majority or conservative block of any significant democratic strength in either Bellingham or Whatcom County. Nor is there such, I suspect, in most of the country.  What there is instead is a well-funded pro-business elite who ceaselessly act to control the economy, social conditions, voter messaging and individual attention to further the ends of their increasingly consolidated profits.

When you really see behind the curtains and you have nothing left to lose, you become a revolutionary social movement like Occupy.  And you find yourself on trial and convicted for protecting yourself against the groping of an un-uniformed police officer.[1, 2]  We have to face facts now: both at the local and national level we currently  live in a fascist state.  How we each choose to come to grips with such a reality is our dilemma as progressives and individuals. But think about that tomorrow. Today, I recommend you send David some help and support.

Candidates who have filed in the 42nd LD

Thanks to all of those who are running for public office in the 42 LD! 

State candidates who have filed for office in WA 42nd LD are here and listed below.  As the weeks move forward,  I will fill in their websites and multimedia pages below and pin this post to a gagdet link on the right column of this blog. Best I can do  is a screenshot below and a messy, elongated table with links below the break.  If you are a candidate in the 42 LD and you have additional links, please email them to me.  

Personally, I want to encourage all  political candidates to have a coordinated approach to multimedia: Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, Blogs, Websites.  Contrary to what some might believe, most of the voting electorate really doesn't want to meet you or listen to you. Although they might want to read about you speaking with others in public, most of the voting electorate even in our small county won't ever get a chance to meet or see you in person.  What we want to know is that you are competent, work hard and represent our political opinions and our community well.   Multimedia is the best approach to reach the breadth of the electorate. 

Click the image below to enlarge or please see a linked table below the break.

Fwd: Acting short-term, thinking long-term

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Kate Gordon" <feedback@thenextgeneration.org>
Date: May 9, 2014 10:37 AM
Subject: Acting short-term, thinking long-term
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Fwd: Two rerfineries, two public comment periods, two very different permits

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Northwest Clean Air Agency <kskipper@nwcleanair.org>
Date: Fri, May 9, 2014 at 3:01 PM
Subject: Two rerfineries, two public comment periods, two very different permits
To: rferrisx@gmail.com

Two rerfineries, two public comment periods, two very different permits

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Two refineries, two public comment periods, two very different permits The Northwest Clean Air Agency will be accepting public comments this month on separate air permits for two different refineries: A draft modification of the BP Cherry Point Refinery air operating permi A draft construction permit for a Shell Puget Sound Refinery proposed rail unloading platform to receive import of "feedstock" – a thick petroleum material (not Bakken crude). The agency has already scheduled public hearings for both permits, even though past history suggests neither would have generated enough interest to prompt a hearing request. (See below for announcements about the individual permits and their public comment periods.) "People have been telling us they are paying attention and looking for opportunities to engage in the process," said NWCAA Executive Director Mark Asmundson. "We've been listening." On April 30, 2014, more than 70 people filled a NWCAA public hearing on the Shell Puget Sound Refinery's draft air operating permit renewal. Comments focused on worries about oil-train safety, refinery emissions and enforcement of refinery violations.

Testing For Evidence of Fukushima Part IV: Is wood burning and radioactive fallout a deadly combination for the Pacific Northwest?

Four WA City Comparison from http://airgraphing.pscleanair.org/

Data from https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/

In Part I of this series, I have described how I have collected three years worth of external air filters sealed in plastic since before March 11, 2011. I change them out every 45 days as they are so filthy with smoke and soot! My hypothesis is that  Fukushima radionuclides bio-accumulate in our forests. As quite a few of my neighbors burn for heat, I should see a gradual increase Cesium137, Strontium90, Iodine131, etc. as the months progress since the accident(s) at Fukushima. In this post, I will look at fine particulate (PM-2.5) emissions; their effect on health and compare our PM-2.5 emissions in Bellingham with other station "polygons" in WA state. Excellent background on PM-2.5 can be found at Wikipedia. Google Scholar has many available academic articles on PM-2.5.

Wood Burning is considered one of the top health hazards in WA State. Limiting fine particle pollution ( less than 2.5 microns) is considered a top monitoring priority for ECY, WA and the EPA. Both the Northwest Clean Air Agency, UW, and ECY have issued health warnings and research describing the disastrous effects of wood burning on human health. A number of areas in Washington of noted interest for their high PM-2.5 levels including the Tacoma-Pierce non attainment area, The Duwamish Valley in Seattle and Whatcom County's Columbia Valley.  However, in some recent data analysis, I have discovered that urban Bellingham is extraordinarily high in total volume of PM2.5 pollution. Although rates recorded by the Yew Street station never reach the same high levels as Tacoma and Yakima station, we burn a longer season in both Anacortes and Bellingham; thus possibly creating a total yearly volume of PM-2.5 emissions equal to or greater than an EPA non attainment area.

Cancer Montage for WA Counties

Below the break is a cancer montage for WA State from NCI State Cancer Profiles.  The SEER*Stat data covers 2012.   Washington is one of three states that currently has "data too sparse" to allow a comparison with the rest of the states on NCI Micromaps for the latest annual and recent trends in incidence rates for all ages,sexes,races. With only 13 counties reporting for most of these graphs, one can see why. I have drawn a yellow line across Whatcom County in the four charts below. In their most recent annual report, the Cancer Center at Peace Health points out that their collection is probably more extensive than many other counties.  Of this, I have little doubt. One of the best reasons to live in Whatcom County is the competence of it's medical practitioners.

What is also of little doubt is that Cancer is a raging national epidemic that affects all ages, races, classes in the United States. We now suffer 1.6M cases of Cancer each year in the U.S. Despite extraordinary improvements in technology and treatment, our latest average incidence rate in  Whatcom County (2006 - 2010) still gives us well over 1000 cases of cancer each year. I find it troubling that only Thurston County reports a higher annual incidence rate in cancer sites under the age of 50 than Whatcom County. (Chart 1 below). The recent trend increase in Washington state counties for Children under the age of 20 is also disturbing.(Chart 3 below)

Cancer rates at these levels have disturbing sociological effects on family stability, income, solvency.  In the 12 years, my family and I have lived in our neighborhood, I can count the deaths (2), the survivors (4), the tragedies. Keep in mind, this is just the people I know of within some hundreds of feet from our home. Cancer is a vicious national tragedy. More frank discussion of its suspected causes and its tragic, expensive aftermaths should be encouraged.

Testing for Evidence of Fukushima in Bellingham: Part II

(My) Aware Electronics RM80 Geiger counter radiation testing from air filters and room fans for March to mid April 2014 from Bellingham, WA. Click to Enlarge.

A bivariate trellis ("lattice") R graph of  EPA RADNET air filter measurements for  Alaska cities  between 3/11/2011 - 5/24/2011.   Click to Enlarge.

Note: I am not a physicist, physical sciences researcher or anything of note. Just another father who wants to make sure his children aren't going to get cancer from Fukushima fallout. That's your warning to take your own samples and do your own data analysis before trusting mine.

There are a number of serious problems when attempting to measure for origin and type of anthropogenic radiation versus background or so called NORML radiation. There are also a number of problems with measurement of radiation and interpretation of the safety levels of radiation. The top graph above is done with  an Aware Electronics RM80: a sensitive PC based Geiger-Mueller counter that can register Alpha, Beta, Gamma radiation  rates.  The bottom graph is from data taken on 5/24/2011 from the EPA, most probably using a sensitive gamma spectrometer  that can measure amounts of radiation by type. The cost of the first device is about $400. The type of device used for the second graph is for more expensive.

Unfortunately, this difference in cost is preventing me from doing useful measurements of the effects of Fukushima in Bellingham. It looks like my air filters are showing higher than normal background radiation as measured by my Geiger-Mueller counter. But  what I really want to know is what type of radionuclide is responsible for that radiation.  Short lived radiation from various sources floats in the background of our lives. Some of it, if breathed in or ingested, can potentially have more devastating consequences on human anatomy than others.  To get this kind of equipment, I am going to need a generous donor.  If you are such a person, please contact me.   R Code output for my recent measurements plus an aggregate graph is below.

The capitalist crisis and the fight for socialist internationalism - World Socialist Web Site

The capitalist crisis and the fight for socialist internationalism - World Socialist Web Site

Fwd: Become a precinct committee officer AND Seth Fleetwood RUNS FOR STATE SENATE!

Democrat Greg Haffner's plea to sign up to run as a Precinct Committee Officer for your local precinct is far below.  Pictured immediately below are the Bellingham Precincts and a GIS map of property lots in Bellingham overlaid with Bellingham Precincts. Click to enlarge this image.

There are currently 87 precincts in Bellingham with vacant PCOs (See the list below).  Yes! 87 precincts in Bellingham currently have no Precinct Committee Officer according to Whatcom County Democrats!  Do you want to make a difference in the next election? Then you need to "submit a Declaration of Candidacy to your County Auditor between May 12th and May 16th." See links below  and Greg Haffner's letter on how to do this.

Having these precincts activated will be especially important for the 42nd  LD State Senate race between incumbent Doug Ericksen(R) and Seth Fleetwood(D).  The 42nd precinct extends through downtown Bellingham and contains 33 Bellingham 200 series precincts.  Activating those precincts will be a key part of any Democratic win in the 42nd LD.

Some important links

https://wei.sos.wa.gov/county/whatcom/en/Pages/default.aspx  Whatcom County Election Page
https://wei.sos.wa.gov/county/whatcom/en/CandidateInfo/Pages/PCO-Information.aspx WC PCO Info
http://documents.co.whatcom.wa.us/weblink8/browse.aspx?startid=2937976&&dbid=100 BHAM Prcnts MAPS
http://www.cob.org/services/maps/gis/index.aspx COB GIS
http://www.whatcomdemocrats.com/content/precinct-committee-officers-pcos Current Committee Officers
http://wa40dems.org/pages/pco.html  40th LD web page
https://www.facebook.com/pages/42nd-Legislative-District-Democrats/205002056367 42nd LD Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/fleetwoodforsenate Fleetwood for Senate

Does Washington want war with Russia? - World Socialist Web Site

Does Washington want war with Russia? - World Socialist Web Site

Fwd: Location change for Shell refinery air permit public hearing to make room for more people

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Northwest Clean Air Agency" <info@nwcleanair.org>
Date: Apr 25, 2014 5:37 PM
Subject: Location change for Shell refinery air permit public hearing to make room for more people
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Fwd: Numbers never lie, but they can be misleading

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Kate Gordon" <feedback@thenextgeneration.org>
Date: Apr 25, 2014 11:01 AM
Subject: Numbers never lie, but they can be misleading
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Fwd: NWCAA news: Shell air permit might not do what you think it does

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Northwest Clean Air Agency" <kskipper@nwcleanair.org>
Date: Apr 24, 2014 3:51 PM
Subject: NWCAA news: Shell air permit might not do what you think it does
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Fwd: Fracking or renewable energy?

---------- Forwarded message ----------

From: Gasland The Movie <admin@gaslandthemovie.com>
Date: Mon, Apr 21, 2014 at 5:37 PM
Subject: Fracking or renewable energy?
To: rferrisx@gmail.com

Oso Landslide Part V: The Rain over Hazel

Accumulated Precipitation 1/1/2014 - 4/16/2014. Maximum accumulation in blue, this year to date in green, normal curve is brown, minimum is red. Top row: Baker, Diablo, Ross Dams. Bottom Row: NewHalem, Arlington, Concrete. From NOAA Now Data . Click picture to Enlarge. No doubt it has been a wetter than normal year in the Northern Cascades.

Oso Landslide Part IV: "How Politics Buries Science..."

"The entire federal budget for landslide research is $3.5 million a year — far less than the property value lost on a single day when 17 mansions slid down a hill in 2005 in Laguna Beach, Calif. (For comparison, $3.5 million is about the same amount Medicare spends per month buying penis pumps for men with erectile dysfunction.)"

from How Politics Buries Science in Landslide Mapping by Bill Dedman NBC News 

Oso Landslide Part III: "Hand of God" or "Hand of Man"?

Is the Oso Landslide a result of "Hand of God" or the technological "Hand of Man"?

Seismic activity the day before the March 22nd Oso event. Middle (blue) signature is a most probably a cultural source. It appears to this author to be a digitally produced "sine wave".

Oso Landslide Part II: Technical links (to date) for Oso 'Event'

There is lots of reporting on Oso floating around in news. Here are links to geologist Daniel Miller's article in the Guardian, followed by USACE technical reports from Miller's article on "Hazel" or the "Steel Haven Landslide" and the news release of the proposed NSF sponsored GEER review:

• http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/01/washington-mudslide-tragedy-google-next-time
• http://www.nws.usace.army.mil/Portals/27/docs/civilworks/projects/Hazel-GoldBasinLandslidesGeomorphicReviewDraft.pdf
• http://www.nws.usace.army.mil/Portals/27/docs/civilworks/projects/SteelheadHavenLandslideDraft.pdf
• http://www.nws.usace.army.mil/Portals/27/docs/civilworks/projects/PrelimDesignProposalforHazelandGoldbasinLandslides.pdf
• http://www.geerassociation.org/GEER_Post%20EQ%20Reports/GEER%20Press%20Release-2014_Washington_Oso_Landslide.pdf 
• http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1098433-miller-and-sias-1997.html#document/p3df

Fwd: Downtown Bellingham Plan: Planning Commission Work Session Tomorrow Night (4/3)

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Pool, Lisa A." <lapool@cob.org>
Date: Apr 2, 2014 10:04 AM
Subject: Downtown Bellingham Plan: Planning Commission Work Session Tomorrow Night (4/3)
To:
Cc:

Downtown Bellingham Plan: Planning Commission Work Sessions

How to create a safe and prosperous downtown...

A post from the indomitable Tara Almond, currently legislative aide for 40th LD representative Jeff Morris, made me remember how much I have to say as a father and citizen about the health of Bellingham's downtown. Bellingham's downtown was one of the original reasons I concluded Bellingham would be a good place to live and raise a family. Originally, when I scouted this place, I rented a hotel room on Samish and spent the next three days walking the entire town from Fairhaven to Cornwall Park.  I walked around Bellingham's downtown repeatedly. I was pleasantly surprised at how safe it seemed. As a note, both my wife and I were raised in east Oakland. I had never really walked through a downtown without my senses alert and guard up. I just didn't realize that until I moved here.

As I have mellowed  and lost many of my 'street instincts' in the last 12 years here, I can easily see now how there are real problems that need addressing downtown and these problems are distressing to many residents.  I sent the letter below based on my beliefs that small communities like this should cultivate a  downtown that is  "family centered" and create appeal to parents who want to move here to give their children a safe and prosperous community to grow up in.  I invite you as readers to send your thoughts to these elected and non-elected officials below. Nurturing and cultivating a prosperous, safe downtown is so important. Many activists and citizen organizations here think and pontificate about this. Much important work has been done by many both publicly and privately.  If you have something to say, your voice should be heard.

Oso Landslide Part I: Data from Oso and Jim Creek Naval Station

Oso, WA landslide from JCW Seismograph (Jim Creek) of March 22nd. The middle energy signature is present in all graphs below for March 10, March 19-22

UW postdoctoral researcher Kate Allstadt has a comprehensive post on PNSN on Seismic Signals generated by the Oso Landslide. Among the more interesting notes in her post is a "sound recording" of the landslide at 160x speed. Local geologist Dan McShane has a number of excellent posts on the geology of the region and the landslide itself. Chuck Forsberg of Omen.com generously shipped me a dump of VLF transmissions log from Jim Creek Naval Station. The the JCW seismographs compiled below show March 10th (date of 1.1 quake) and March 19 - 22.  My guess is that the recurring 8 - 10 AM energy signature identified by Kate Allstadt as a "cultural source" is probably some cycle of the nearby 250 KW VLF transmissions in Jim Creek. Seismographs from PNSN.  Click to enlarge.

From left to right: March 10, March 19 - 22.  Note the two sharp disturbances early morning of  March 21st; the day before the slide. Also note the persistent "cultural source" signature that shows up in each plot. 

Testing for Evidence of Fukushima in Bellingham: Part I

45 days of filtration in a Bellingham neighborhood that heats with wood.

I am working on (DIY)  testing for evidence of Fukushima fallout in Bellingham. This is a "science project" fraught with difficulties for a layman. I will leave pictures and R code output without much comment for now. So far most of my testing has been exploratory and I looking at how to systemize my methodology.  I have collected three years worth of external air filters sealed in plastic. I change them out every 45 days as they are so filthy with smoke and soot! 

Why you should install heat pump technology now!

In a statement Tuesday, U.S. Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and John Hoeven (R-ND) called on the Obama administration to order the DOE to quickly evaluate more than 20 applications to export LNG to countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. Specifically, they want DOE to approve all of the pending permits within 60 days, or provide reasons why they can't be approved.

"For the first time in a generation, America is in a position to export energy, and acting strategically to increase our natural gas exports will weaken [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's grip on energy supplies for Europe and Ukraine," Warner said. "We're suggesting a comprehensive, bipartisan approach that will have a positive impact in the near term and the longer term on the energy security of Ukraine and the EU." from 

http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/97781-europe-ukraine-discuss-pipeline-upgrades-reversals

Don't believe energy company hype about Shale Gas. It is not a panacea and the energy industry is seeking to make profits exporting LNG!  Global warming and the new Cold War will result in future shock to your household each winter. I recommend you install either the new 'greenspeed' or  the hybrid heat pump technology for your heating needs.  Our gas bill this January in Bellingham, WA? $38.00.

Passed the three year anniversary of Fukushima last week...

A John Servais column about radiation found in the Fraser River Valley in Northwest Citizen reminded me that we passed the three year anniversary of Fukushima last week.  Little is known about the effects of the radiation releases on the West Coast because the monitoring is so sparse and distrusted. For what it is worth, here are the EPA RadNet (air source) graphs of ten different gamma energy ranges in Seattle, Fairbanks, and Juneau for the last six months. Click to enlarge:

My general feeling is the radioactive releases from Fukushima are affecting our health now and will for a very long time.  My guess is that the amount and effects of such releases are being covered up or dismissed.

Fwd: SEP Newsletter: What the Western-backed regime is planning for Ukrainian workers

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Socialist Equality Party" <sep@socialistequality.com>
Date: Mar 16, 2014 11:05 AM
Subject: SEP Newsletter: What the Western-backed regime is planning for Ukrainian workers
To: "rferrisx@gmail.com" <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Fwd: Today on the WSWS

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "World Socialist Web Site" <list@wsws.org>
Date: Mar 9, 2014 10:57 PM
Subject: Today on the WSWS
To: "rferrisx@gmail.com" <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Doubling Tar Sands production for Imperial War » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

Doubling Tar Sands production for Imperial War » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

Fwd: Downtown Bellingham Plan: March 27 Planning Commission Meeting Materials

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Pool, Lisa A." <lapool@cob.org>
Date: Mar 13, 2014 12:29 PM
Subject: Downtown Bellingham Plan: March 27 Planning Commission Meeting Materials
To:
Cc:

DOWNTOWN BELLINGHAM PLAN: March 27 Planning Commission Meeting Materials

All documents associated with the draft Downtown Bellingham Plan are scheduled for a public hearing at the March 27 Planning Commission meeting. The Planning Commission packet, including the staff report and City Center Implementation Strategy, is now posted online here: http://www.cob.org/government/public/boards-commissions/planning-materials.aspx.

Written comments should be submitted to planningcommission@cob.org no later than March 25, 2014, for consideration at the meeting. All comments submitted prior to or during the meeting will become part of the written record.

Thanks,

Lisa Pool, AICP

Senior Planner

City of Bellingham, WA

360-778-8390

My incoming and outgoing email messages are subject to public disclosure requirements per RCW 42.56.

The Post Crimean World Order...

The U.S. blinked!  The situation is still fluid, but the apocalypse didn't happen.  The world will now pursue a "Post Crimean World Order".  In this new world, major economic powers will each pitch  the less powerful countries in the World. States from Ukraine to Ecuador will have some choices to make in alliances: US or Russia Federation or China or Brazil or... perhaps the "middle way" of balancing between all of them! Hey, it worked for the French!

Russia is not weak anymore. The United States economy is still too weak to engage in substantial military or economic risk. The neo-conservative / neo-liberal dream of interfering far and wide has seen limits. With the Asian axis developing strong capitalist economies, national power will become more globally diffuse or 'multilateral'.  In the 'Post Crimean World Order' the Asian economies will increase in power and strength.  Europe and Japan will to have to bend towards them.  The United States is in a difficult position for now. It's aggressive neo-colonial era launched under the guise of the 'war on terrorism' has resulted in lost international good will. But this can change.

My contention is that the world will be at  greater peace and eventually more prosperity with a stronger Russia. With a burgeoning capitalist economy of its own now, it should be able to help China, Brazil, India challenge the economic and political axis of the West. It is possible that with less (or more hard earned) foreign economic opportunity, the US may have no option but to substantially grow and innovate the domestic economy. This could increase the prosperity of the US workforce and shrink the wealth gap. It might also shrink all of our ridiculously bloated defense and intelligence budgets.  And that, dear reader, is an outcome worth hoping for!

Of course, there are always other outcomes.  The U.S. could become bitter and reactionary, engaging in more needless foreign intrusions. An impoverished America could fall into nationalism and elect right wing extremists convinced that nuclear wars are "winnable"....  But I don't think this is going to happen. The general public here is sick of sending there sons to die in foreign countries and hearing about how we supported neo-Nazis to overthrow elected governments like Ukraine.  Let us hope the future brings out the best in United States and the rest of this very large and growing world!

Fwd: SEP Newsletter: The David Miranda ruling and the attack on press freedom

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Socialist Equality Party" <sep@socialistequality.com>
Date: Mar 2, 2014 4:55 PM
Subject: SEP Newsletter: The David Miranda ruling and the attack on press freedom
To: "rferrisx@gmail.com" <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:

Socialist Equality Party Newsletter Below is a selection of articles appearing on the World Socialist Web Site last week. Six days a week, the WSWS publishes on all the major political, social and cultural developments. To sign up for the daily newsletter, click here. Contents: The David Miranda ruling and the attack on press freedom Coup in Ukraine: A warning to the international working class The political lessons of the UAW debacle in Tennessee US and Japanese troops train for war against China

The brilliance of Neo-Nazi paramilitarism combined with Neo-Con dreams of world domination....

"If Russia wants to be a G8 country, it needs to behave like a G8 country."

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

So  Mr. Secretary, when we invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria... What exactly were we behaving like in the United States? It turns out that supporting a bunch of Neo-Nazi paramilitary reactionaries to overthrow Ukraine's elected government was a really bad idea!  Victoria Nuland and the rest of the neocon world have now learned the lesson that Ukraine isn't El Salvador. Wow! How freaking brilliant for them to learn this at the expense of our country and world economic stability. More on these subjects later. For now read, please William Engdahl....

Fwd: Downtown Bellingham Plan: Planning Commission Public Hearing and DNS Notices

I'm a bit late with this forward...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Pool, Lisa A." <lapool@cob.org>
Date: Feb 25, 2014 4:17 PM
Subject: Downtown Bellingham Plan: Planning Commission Public Hearing and DNS Notices
To:
Cc:

DOWNTOWN BELLINGHAM PLAN: Public Notices

Two items pertaining to the Downtown Bellingham Plan are now available online:

-          Notice of Public Hearing for the March 27 Planning Commission Meeting: http://www.cob.org/cob/Pubnot.nsf/frmNotice/79E8F0216FD0EEC288257C8A00771146?OpenDocument
-          Determination of Non-Significance: http://www.cob.org/cob/Pubnot.nsf/frmNotice/7332DE73F39985A788257C86006285C6?OpenDocument

The Planning Commission staff report for the Downtown Plan will be posted online by March 13, 2014.

Contact Lisa Pool, Senior Planner, at lapool@cob.org or 360-778-8390 with comments or questions.