How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE.  This makes LD 40  + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide!  Let the balloting begin!

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI

 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue

 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue

10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue

11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue

12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40,  & 42.  Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie.  For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Election URLs and Links

GE 2018 Election URLs and Links

These are some sites useful for the November 6th, 2018 General Election in Whatcom County and the four county area of Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.

Summed Voting histories for the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ)

For the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ), we have the following totals for Primary 2018 for the August VRDB:

[1] 128303 # Active and Voted
[1] 154465 # Active and Not Voted

I sum the voting histories (per voter) of each of these groups below. Note that the Voted vs. Not Voted charts are approximately 2x in scale.  This post will probably need a wide screen.

Metrics and Charts for Mail-in vs. DropBox by WA County for 2017 and 2018

The chart immediately below represents a comparison of mail in ballots for Pri2018 , Pri2017, GE2017 for the top 10 WA counties excluding King which is shown far below. This data is from the state's election reconciliation reports.  In a previous post on Gender and the Vote I discuss groups of voters by their recent voting history.  Here, I look simply at two ballot return methods (Mail-in vs. DropBox) to help determine if the new "stampless ballot" is enticing new and old populations to vote more than usual. Note that it may be difficult to separate voter motives and habits by ballot return methodologies. But the long purple bars of PRI2018 in chart below, bars that outstretch both PRI2017(blue) and GE2017(red), indicate mail-in balloting is big hit. Click to enlarge Charts.

Mail-in Totals for Top Ten Counties

Charts from 4 County (IS,SK,SJ,WM) Area

Charts from GE2016 and PRI2018 results from the four county area:

• Island
• Skagit
• San Juan
• Whatcom

Ballots have Dropped... Should be in your mailbox soon.

This October 8th deadline for online voter registration has now passed. If your address is not current @ myvote.wa.gov please call your local elections office to see how you can still vote in the November 6th election. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.  The 18 day election period starts today October 19th and runs until the November 6th general election.  You should have received your voter's pamphlet by now. Check your voter registration if you have not.  Some important election deadlines and information for voters are below:

• Online registration / Address Change deadline: Oct 8th # deadline passed
• Ballots Mailed Whatcom County : Oct 17  
• Start of 18 day Election Period for WA State: Oct 19
• Election Date : Nov 6

This is the new "stampless ballot". Drop boxes for Whatcom County can be found here. The WA Dems produced a drop box map for all of WA here. These deadlines and other information can be seen at http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election  (Whatcom County) and at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections (WA SOS).  In general, WA requires registration at a specific address 29 days before the election. New laws take effect in June of 2019. See RCW 29A.08.140 @ http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=29A.08.140.  For further questions about your registration status in Whatcom County, please visit myvote.wa.gov or contact Whatcom County Elections. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties. More numbers and details after the break...

Advice for PCOs and volunteers seeking data and instructions

If you are a PCO (Precinct Committee Officer) or campaign volunteer, probably the best place to seek data and marching orders for the 2018 midterms is your local county or state party headquarters. If you are in Whatcom County, contact either:

• https://www.whatcomdemocrats.org  Whatcom Democrats
• http://www.whatcomgop.com  Whatcom Republicans

If you are not in Whatcom County, try to find your local party headquarters for your county. You could also visit the State Party sites:

• https://www.wa-democrats.org WA State Democrats
• https://wsrp.org WA State Republicans

This blog is an independent site with no party alliances. Although I worked with the Democratic Party for 2017, I have not been a member since November 2017. The data on this page is essentially non-partisan. If you are a candidate and/or data professional looking for data sources outside your party's data you can try some of the links I have posted here:

http://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/06/general-data-advise-for-candidates.html

Unless, you are a data professional, it is probably not a good idea to second guess your party's instructions.  If you wish to support your party during the election period, now is a probably good time to commit to that support, seek training, get to know your party, etc. This support usually includes: canvassing precincts, making donations, phone calling, stapling flyers, etc. It is not difficult work, but each party does it with different methodologies and data sources.

My personal advice to volunteers and campaign managers based on my previous experience is as follows:

[For Volunteers:]
Don't do any campaign work you don't feel comfortable with. Your parties have some responsibility to provide you with instructions, materials, training and technology  that you need to be productive.  However, please remember most party officials are volunteers just like yourself. Apply yourself with flexibility and initiative.

[For Party leaders:]
Try to free your volunteers  from the  "the internal politics" of the party itself. Make your volunteer assignments simple, straightforward and without litmus tests.  Remember that volunteers come in many shapes, sizes, and belief systems. Be clear and easy to understand with your instruction sets.

[The Vast "Purpality"]
There is evidence for both the United States and the state of WA that much of the potential vote is essentially independent and that many precinct residents are quite possibly some shade of purple rather than red or blue. Looking at the results for your precinct and county elections can help you visualize your local neighborhood's place in the blue to red spectrum of our vast "purpality".  I try to remember that the largest bloc of  voters in the United States for almost all non-presidential election years is not a particular race, gender, party or class. The largest bloc of voters in the United States for any election is almost always those who did not vote! Your job as a campaign volunteer is to convince others to vote for your candidate and perhaps your party. Civility, kindness, grace, and respect are your best tools to complete that mission. Patience and tolerance are your best tools to survive your mission.

Gender and the Vote in WA

Updated on 10/10/2018.  Still under construction. 

Voter Histories for Primary 2018 are due first week in September and will allow for Primary 2018 to be incorporated into this post. The tables below want a wide screen. Gender is a such a widespread and binary classifier that understanding it's significance in terms of blue/red, young/old, white/POC appears difficult. That women register and vote more than men is an easy insight. Who women vote for in what counties and why they vote is more difficult.

To give a simple example relevant to the 2018 midterms: It is possible that the new stampless ballot could increase conservative votes among women of low motility and busy schedules in red counties. There is some evidence that partisanship of gender  is more clearly defined when gender is considered as a function of location, age, religion, race, class, income, party allegiance and education levels. Peering into a wide scale 'binary classifier' like gender and gender's relationship to other electoral co-variants is proving to be more that a weekend's task.  The tables below want a wide screen.

Projecting CD, LD, LCD results for 2018 from 2016 Presidential Results

My first inference is that GE 2018 midterms in WA will be highly reflective of GE 2016 Presidential votes in party preference and volume. My predictions: Increased volumes of female voters and increased volumes of "stampless voters" will make the GE 2018 midterms in WA record breaking in volume.  If you want the spreadsheets for this data, email me: Tell me who you are  and why you need that data. Click to enlarge charts.  -RMF 11:16 AM 8/26/2018.

Tables and Charts from the Final Primary 2018 Whatcom County matchback

Below are some tables and charts from the final Whatcom County matchback. Will need wide screen to display correctly.

42nd Primary Data

This post will need a wide screen and is probably not viewable on some phones. I am using Whatcom County results from 08/15/2018 but will update with certified vote totals after 08/20/2018. 

Richey vs. Erb in the Whatcom 2018 Primary

 I am analyzing the precinct differences between the all county races and the apparent conflict between precinct results and precinct correlations in similar populations of voters. This post will need a wide screen and is probably not viewable on some phones. I am using Whatcom County results from 08/15/2018 but will update with certified vote totals after 08/20/2018. 

James Erb ~8K loss to Eric Richey in the primary was distributed by falloff percentage across many precincts. In the chart above,there were ~4K less votes in the Prosecutors race vs. the County at Large Race. In the chart below, the ('lowess') trend line representing James Erb precinct votes increases dramatically as precinct falloff in the Prosecutor's race decreases. Votes are scaled by dividing by 10 to match the 'falloff percentage". Click to enlarge the graphs.

The effect of the "stampless ballot" in WA State

The current WA State turnout percentage for Primary 2018 will be one of the highest for the 19 Primary elections since year 2000. The 1.7M votes will be the largest number of votes ever returned for a primary election in WA State. My initial inference is that the new stampless ballots are bringing an entire new voter pool into play. WA as a state is beset by both by rural poverty and independent voters. The nearest comparable Legislative District election year is a Presidential year (2016):

(Primary2018) - (Primary 2016)

1710872 - 1421841

[1] 289031

(Primary2018) / (Primary 2016)

1710872/1421841

[1] 1.203279

A twenty percent increase in votes for General Election 2018 because of stampless ballots means an entirely new voter profile for WA State.

Charts

Deb, Rud, Pink, or Ballew... I have some precinct charts for you.

Primary 2018 Matchback Sequences

Update 7:01 PM 8/21/2018

The WC Primary election has been certified. 62,707 "Good Votes" were tabulated, making this the largest primary in the history of Whatcom County. By comparison, GE 2017 had 63,606 "Good Votes" so this primary is comparable in participation to last year's general election. It is suspected by some of us that the "stampless ballot" and a polarized, vitrolic political climate contributed much to this turnout. I suspect we can look for an 85K - 90K turnout for what will be a heavily contested GE 2018 on November 6th. The midterm is currently 77 days from today Tuesday, August 21, 2018. 2,786 ballots were returned "undeliverable". If you didn't receive a ballot this election, you probably forgot to change your address when moved. It is probable you will shortly be made an inactive voter. To remedy this, please use myvote.wa.gov to update your address or call you local election office.

   AVReturnStatus     N
1:           Good 62707
2:      Not Voted 73719
3:     Challenged   702
4:           Void   655
5:  Undeliverable  2786 # If you didn't get your ballot: myvote.wa.gov

Unresolved Challenges included:
 2:                  Too Late    438
 3:        No Signature Match    180
 4:              No Signature     32

Primary 2018 Returns

Ballot Return Statistics

This is probably the last Ballot Status Report. Two were filed for 8/6 and 8/7. I used the PM filing for both days. Although the turnout volume will grow until certification, those numbers will be reflected in election results due tonight August 7, 2018 at 8PM.  August 7, 2018 primary results can be found here: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20180807/Turnout.html. As a note, my projections are simply based upon applying the 2016 CT_pct below to each county. Actual results might vary widely from such projections. -RMF 6:56 PM 8/7/2018

Age and the Primary Turnout

Analysis and data updated from August 10th matchback - RMF 6:52 AM 8/12/2018

There were any number of important reasons to vote in the August 7th Primary, and vote many did. This table is from August 9th  Whatcom County matchbacks merged with July's VRDB:

   AgeRange Active VotesGood PctGood_AgeRange
1:  17 - 54  80113     24115             30.1
2:  55 - 80  53542     33779             63.1
3: 81 - 106   6721      4483             66.7

42nd and "Top 30" WA State LD Contributions and Expenditures through 07/16/2018

 For 2018, there have been $10.9M contributions / $3.6M expenditures on all WA LD races to date (07/16/2018). For 2018, there have been $377K contributed / $102K expended on just the 42nd LD Note that LD 42 boasts two Senate candidates (Tim Ballew:$100K, Doug Ericksen:$88K) who are in the "top 30" for state wide legislative contributions to date. 42nd Senate candidate Pinky Vargas has raised a respectable $66K, but is burning through her stash at a faster rate, probably in hopes of making it to the Final.

VRDB and LD counts through July 1st, 2018

All WA LDs: Active Registrants, Max Candidate LD Vote 2016, Trump+Johnson,Clinton+Stein. Click to Enlarge.

The post below the break describes current and historical Legislative District registration levels as of July 1, 2018. Click to enlarge the charts.

Ballots drop July 18th in Whatcom County for the August 7th Primary election

Ballots drop July 18th in Whatcom County for the August 7th Primary election. Below are  some links for Whatcom County residents.  If you are outside of Whatcom County, visit this handy page from the WA SOS ( https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors/ ) to find your county's election desk!

• WA SOS :: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/
• WM Current Election ::  http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election 
• WM Voter Guide :: https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/myvoteolvr/onlinevotersguide/?countyCode=wm
• WM Voter Pamphlet :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/35443/August-7-Primary-Election-Local-Voters-Pamphlet
• WM Sample Ballot :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/34834/August-7-2018-Sample-Ballot
• WM Ballot Drop Locations :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1863/Ballot-Drop-Box-Locations
• WM Democrats :: https://www.whatcomdemocrats.org
• WM Republicans :: http://www.whatcomgop.com

Ryan's Brief List of Sites to Help Prepare Your Mind for the Upcoming Election Season!

IMPORTANT  FOR WA VOTERS : "Deadline for in-person, mail-in & online registrations or address changes" for the August Primary is Monday July 9th!!

Happy July 4th readers!  Please read the post below the break for some light summer reading and preemptive electoral deprogramming! This includes my brief list of sites to prepare you as a voter for the thoroughly corrupt, fascist, manipulative,  authoritarian, psyops and data driven world we all swim in now! And don't forget to register to vote and/or update your changed address at myvote.wa.gov before Monday July 9th! Doesn't hurt to check even if you haven't moved!

"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part II

Adams, Franklin, and Yakima Counties in WA share the distinction of having majority hispanic populations with majority white voting populations. The CVAP estimates for all three counties are dominated by "White Alone" voting populations.  Click on table to enlarge.  Query in data.table  'i' field : (HispanicorLatinoPCT - WhiteAlonePCT >= 0) & (CVAP_EST_White_Alone - CVAP_EST_HispanicorLatino >= 0).  

This post is under construction. It includes race, CVAP ("Citizen Voting Age Population"), and turnout in WA with ongoing correlation analysis. Click to enlarge graph and tables. For documentation and introduction, please  see Part I

"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part I

Below are lattice (trellis) graphs of CVAP data from https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/cvap.html. See technical documentation here.  This is the latest Citizen Voting Age Population for WA state by county and "lower house" legislative districts. Below the break are (4) charts for Counties and (5) charts for LD that describe:

• CVAP_EST_Total # Citizen Voting Age Population Total per County or LD.
• TOT_EST_Total   # Total estimated population per County or LD.
• CVAP_EST_White_Alone  #  Citizen Voting Age Population for race "White Alone".
• TOT_EST_White_Alone     #  Total estimated "White Alone" population.
• (CVAP_EST_Total - CVAP_EST_White_Alone)  # The remaining CVAP not "White Alone".
• (TOT_EST_Total - TOT_EST_White_Alone)       # The remaining population not "White Alone. 

Because the charts are detailed, there is a zip and 7zip file with spreadsheets and jpgs here. The data fields for county and legislative districts are as below.

t(rbind(County[1],SLDL[1]))

         [,1]                      [,2]                                    
GEONAME  "Autauga County, Alabama" "State House District 1 (2016), Alabama"
LNTITLE  "Total"                   "Total"                                 
GEOID    "05000US01001"            "62000US01001"                          
LNNUMBER "1"                       "1"                                     
TOT_EST  "55050"                   "46015"                                 
TOT_MOE  NA                        "1138"                                  
ADU_EST  "41195"                   "36130"                                 
ADU_MOE  " 34"                     "856"                                   
CIT_EST  "54510"                   "45450"                                 
CIT_MOE  " 263"                    "1115"                                  
CVAP_EST "40690"                   "35660"                                 
CVAP_MOE "236"                     "851"


LNTITLE covers the following racial/ethnic classifications:

 SLDL[,.(LNTITLE=unique(LNTITLE))]
                                                           LNTITLE
 1:                                                          Total
 2:                                         Not Hispanic or Latino
 3:                         American Indian or Alaska Native Alone
 4:                                                    Asian Alone
 5:                                Black or African American Alone
 6:                Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone
 7:                                                    White Alone
 8:                     American Indian or Alaska Native and White
 9:                                                Asian and White
10:                            Black or African American and White
11: American Indian or Alaska Native and Black or African American
12:                        Remainder of Two or More Race Responses
13:                                             Hispanic or Latino 

 For more information, please see technical documentation. Click on charts to enlarge.

Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part II)

Turnout rates from Voting Histories for the top 10 most populous WA Counties: Blue = 2016, Green = 2014, Red = 2017. Click to enlarge the chart.

In the last post I looked at voter participation (turnout) volumes from voter histories per county for General Elections 2014 - 2017 or GE 2014 - GE 2017. I now look at the top ten most populous WA counties. Each of these counties has over 100K registered voters in GE 2017. These top ten counties account for 82% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. The top five counties account for 66% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. But their rates of participation in the various election years show differences pictured above.

Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part I)

Below the break are matplots from voting histories of the top 5  and bottom 34 WA counties for General Elections 2014 - 2017. The open purple circle represents GE2016 turnout, the filled green circle represents GE2014.  (Red square is GE2017, filled blue circle is GE2015). The top chart is turnout volume for KI, PI, SN, SP, CR - the top five WA counties. That left hand axis is 200K - 1M. The bottom chart is the bottom 34 or rest of state. That left hand axis is 20K - 140K. Tables with turnout volumes for all counties follow. Note that the WA SoS warns that data form the voting histories does not always match reported final votes. Click on the charts to enlarge.

General data advice for candidates

Below is some information and links that might help you with public campaign data. Remember that working with data requires previous experience. Some data can be analyzed with spreadsheets, but statewide data will require database or data analytics software functionality.

Colllapsible Trees

These are images of Collapsible Trees of LCDs, RJIs, by LCD, Precincts and Counties. Click to Enlarge.

See http://rmfmedia.com/public/viewhtml for URLs.
See also https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/collapsibleTree/collapsibleTree.pdf
The 'hierarchy' argument defines the tree data in the code below the break.

No warranty for any data is expressed or implied. 
Please use at your own risk. Please understand all the laws that govern the use of WA Electoral Data: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/vrdbfaq.aspx

The Libertarian Challenge in WA State

Top 6 Party Prefers declared during filing week by Count (N):

                            PartyName   N

 1:        (Prefers Democratic Party) 168

 2:        (Prefers Republican Party) 144

 3:                                    36

 4:       (Prefers Independent Party)  19

 5:      (States No Party Preference)  14

 6:       (Prefers Libertarian Party)  12
...

See table at bottom for full list.

I dug into the campaign contributions and expenditures this last weekend and found myself captivated the "strength" of the Libertarian movement nationwide and in WA State. Matthew Dubin has multiple $2K donations from out of state 'libertarian supporters'. As of last Friday, he is nearly leading the campaign funding race in LD 36th outspending his opponent incumbent Noel Frame.

PDC Contributions through June 1st

This is PDC data for 2018 campaign contributions until June 1 or the first five months of this year. We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by Contrib (Contribution).

PDC Expenditures through June 1st

This is PDC data for 2018 campaign expenditures until June 1 or the first five months of this year. We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by expenditure (Expend).

2018 Filing week is over... (Part III)

Click to Enlarge WA Map of LD, CD, Precincts.

WA State filing week is over. The state lists 416 Legislative, Congressional, Judicial and Federal candidates for office.  Each county also has local offices.You can find more information at these URLs:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? 

Download:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=XX # all state
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=WM # Whatcom 


Some lists with R Code (from data.table library) below the break. Font needs wide screen and probably some zoom.

Here Comes Filing Week : Part II

Filing week is upon us. You can check here:

 

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? # Entire State

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?countyCode=wm # Whatcom County

 

Below the break are tables of GE 2016 Presidential and Legislative votes by County and Legislative District.

A Postgres query  like this:

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 28003 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 22395 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 30850 # “Rest of State” not KI

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 40758 # “Rest of State” not KI

can be confusing because it shows King County ("KI") and Rest of the State ("ROS") in two separate entries.

Far below, LDs split between KI and “ROS” are expressed like this as an R (data.table) query:

  LD KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

  1     5987     16836      14921       31482 22823   46403

or split between LD ~ County for KI and “ROS” like this:

   LD County KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

   1     KI     5987         0      14921           0  5987   14921

   1     SN        0     16836          0       31482 16836   31482

Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

-RMF 1:12 PM 5/14/2018

Here Comes Filing Week 2018 (Part I)

Filing week starts May 14th. 2018 is a Congressional and Legislative District election year. The maps of WA state above give counties in blue outline, LDs in solid color and CDs in black outline.  The more densely populated the district the smaller the size of the  district.  The maps above are created data from WA OFM. Click to enlarge charts in a separate window. Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy is winning by 237 votes as of Monday 4/30/2018. The Blaine School District showed strong anti-tax sentiment in comparison to the 2016 Blaine School District levy.  This race could have gone either way. The numbers below the break are from Friday, April 27. This race will be certified May 4.

Cross County Active Voter Migrations: GE2016 to GE2017

 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017.   Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library.

"LCD" and LD Projections: 2018

These are "LCD" projections for 2018. Each LD part is coupled with their CD match (e.g. 42_1, 42_2) to give a more realistic picture of what races are competitive and what are not based on 2016 Presidential Votes. When I look at it this way, only LDs 6,10,17,24,26,44 represent competitive races. (e.g. margins less than 5% for the LD.) Some 'LCD's are competitive but the LD race is drowned out by the strength of one party in the opposing LCD(s). Not all LDs are split between CDs. The more dense, urban LDs in Seattle are often encompassed by one CD.

WCD 2018 Election Results

In the 2018 Whatcom Conservation District election,  Alan Chapman (endorsed by both the Riveter's Collection and the Whatcom Democrats) appears to have defeated incumbent Larry Helm by 31 votes. Last year, Heather Christianson defeated Suzanne Snyder. Click on the chart to enlarge. View this data on a wide screen. Candidate statements here.

March 2018: Data For Counties, LD and CD.

For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB  and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.

Republicans encroaching on COB precincts?

Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:

• 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
• 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
• 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.

These elections had

• completely different turnouts
• precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
• partial precincts for some of the February Special Election 
• and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections. 

I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday.  This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters.  Click to enlarge chart.

Certified February Special Election Data

Below are cor.tests for 2016 and 2017 candidates vs. 2018 BPS501 results per precinct.  A full list of non protected precinct data is below with 2016, 2017 election results and 2018 BPS bond results. You will need to view this on a wide screen, not a phone. This is stats heavy with no added chit chat.

How the BPS 501 Bond Vote played Out (updated with Final match back and Results)

Both BPS 501 bond and MBS 507 levy have passed.

Bellingham Public School  district 501 (90) 2017 precincts outlined in Black and White. Color scale for City and County are 2016 precinct boundaries colored blue to red representing the  Clinton - Trump difference.  Color and outlines demarcate changes between 2016 and 2017 precincts. Click to enlarge. An online map of precincts from the WC Election office is here.

There were two school district financing measures on your ballot this week. If you live in either the Mt. Baker 507 or Bellingham 501 school districts you could and did vote for:

• Bellingham School District 501 Proposition 2018-1 General Obligation Bonds - $155,000,000
• Mt Baker School District 507 Proposition 2018-2 Facilities and Technology Levy

For more information on the BPS 501 Bond itself please see More Information at bottom of this post. The rest of this post contains statistical data simulating the BPS 501 bond vote from 2016 and 2017 election results. Matchback totals and projections have been updated with the final results.  Both the Bond and Levy passed.

Men, Women, Trump, Clinton, Rural, Urban Votes

Below are a couple of interesting "top 20" precinct lists. The first list are precincts in GE 2016  that had at least 75 more male voters than females ranked by votes for Hillary Clinton. The second list are precincts in GE 2016 that had at least 75 more female voters than males ranked by votes for Donald Trump. In these 40 precincts, it appears rural/urban dynamics are overcoming gender dynamics. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 WA Voterdb, so they will be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS. 

Top Clinton and Trump Precincts GE2016

Top 100 GE 2016 precincts ranked by percentage with 50 or more votes each for either Trump (beige-left col) or Clinton (azure-right col).  These lists emphasize the Rural/Urban party split in WA. Click to enlarge charts. Best viewed on desktop.

2016 DJT HRC Precinct Correlations for all WA Counties

R's correlation coefficient  gives us a positive <-> negative correlation score (1,-1). "0" describes no correlation. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS.  Here are the correlation coefficient for 2016 GE precinct votes for DJT (Trump) and HRC (Clinton) from:

2016 LD and CD with KI separated

These should be 2016 WA Congressional and Legislative District returns with KING County votes separated as "KI". The results are merged with 12/07/16 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS. 

LD x County Matrices

County by LD matrix from 11/2017 voterdb plus a matrix difference: 11/2017 - 07/2016.

GE 2016 and GE 2017: Top Counties

The tables below represent WA counties with over 50K good ballots returned for either GE 2016 and GE 2017.  Information for this post comes from the WA SoS Research and United States Census CVAP data. These 14 counties represent 88% of registered voters for the 39 WA counties for GE 2017.  Columns:

County: These are WA Counties > 50K Registered
Registered: Registered at Time of GE (General Election)
Ballots: Ballots Good Returned
TO: PCT TO ('Turn Out') or Ballots Good Returned / Registered
Ballots_CVAP: PCT Ballots Good Returned / 2015 (released 2017) Citizen Voting Age Population
diff: difference between TO PCT and Ballots_CVAP PCT

Important Links for the 2017 General Election

VOTE EARLY! VOTE DEMOCRAT!! TELL YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE!!!